ECN 590: PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS
Professor Leonard Lardaro
 804 Chafee Hall
 E-mail: llardaro@uri.edu

The purpose of this course is to acquaint students with the terminology of economics, introduce them to the "way of thinking" it entails, and to undertake a survey of contemporary microeconomics and macroeconomics.

Microeconomics, the first part of this course, is the branch of economics that focuses on economic activity from the perspective of individuals and firms, extending to the industry level. I will divide this subject matter into four parts. The first acquaints students with basic economic terminology, introducing two models that explain various aspects of economics. We begin with Production Possibilities, which illustrates the nature of (relative) scarcity and the types of choices facing any economy. After this has been completed, the basic model of market operation, Supply and Demand, will be presented along with a several extensions (most notably demand elasticity). This knowledge will be presupposed throughout the remainder of the semester. After that, the nature of cost and production will be presented, with extensions to international trade applications (involving US businesses) and the stock market. The role of management in influencing costs will be emphasized, as will effects of worker training and work effort. The third part will outline the ways these microeconomic variables are interrelated: market structure theory. A unifying theme for this entire course, which will emphasize the workings of a market economy such as ours, is the microeconomic basis for and the limitations of classical "laissez faire" theory, which sets forth the conditions under which markets provide the "best" outcome for society without much government intervention. The microeconomic portion concludes by discussing the role of government.

The final portion of this course details macroeconomics -- the area of economics that focuses on aggregate economic activity. I divide this subject matter into three parts. The first portion, which builds on the micro theory outlined earlier, outlines the transition from microeconomics to macroeconomics. An important part of this is detailing how these key variables are measured, discussing their strengths and weaknesses. The final part of this course will then outline in detail how these key macroeconomic variables are interrelated. This is the role of economic theory - to establish systematic associations between variables whose interdependence is not always obvious or intuitive. We begin with the Basic Keynesian Model, which outlines how real GDP is determined and how it changes. Next, Fiscal Policy will be discussed, noting a number of practical applications. Following this, we add prices and inflation to the macroeconomic discussion, using the Aggregate Supply - Aggregate Demand model. This is very important since there are actually two different types of inflation, and only one can be easily managed by demand-side management policies like Fiscal Policy. We conclude by analyzing Money and Monetary Policy, illustrating how this works and potential complicating factors to the implementation of Federal Reserve intentions.

This is strictly an applications-oriented course. I feel very strongly that students must learn how to apply the material we cover to events currently taking place. By working with this material, you will understand it better. Furthermore, by practicing the application of macroeconomic theory, you will build an intuition that you can use after you have completed this course. Such knowledge is becoming ever more important as politicians sometimes misstate macroeconomic concepts or manipulate index numbers in ways that give misleading impressions of how well (or badly) our economy is doing. As part of this effort, several widely held inaccuracies will be discussed:

• The price of a good measures the true cost of that good;
• When costs rise, firms merely pass the entire increase onto consumers;
• Taxes levied on firms are passed on entirely to consumers;
• Whenever shortages arise, the government must ultimately bring about their end;
• If wages are "high," labor is expensive;
• The major way to lower cost per unit is to build a larger factory;
• If an endeavor (production of a good or occupation) is very lucrative, all one needs to do is enter that endeavor, and profit will be guaranteed;
• Centralized planning is the best way to coordinate economic activity;
• Changes in the Consumer Price Index accurately measure the rate of inflation;
• A strongly growing economy has a growing balance of trade surplus;
• The unemployment rate measures all "able-bodied persons" who could work, but are currently unemployed;
• A government deficit indicates that current fiscal policy is expansionary; and
• "High" interest rates are a manifestation of a "tight money" policy by the Fed.

REQUIRED TEXT: McConnell, Brue and Flynn, Economics (19th ed.)with CONNECT
URL for CONNECT: http://connect.mcgraw-hill.com/class/l_lardaro_ecn590_summer_2012

The required text, McConnell, Brue, and Flynn provides the formal economic tools that will be utilized, along with a number of applications. This is an e-book - you need to go to the URL above, purchase access and register (select "Buy Online" and "Buy Connect Plus"). If you would like to purchase a hard copy of the text with access to CONNECT, you can upgrade your subscription online. You can also get a used copy from Amazon.com or other places as well. Along with access to the e-book version of the text, you also have access to CONNECT, a quiz and assignment facility that will be used throughout the semester. CONNECT provides numerous problems with solutions that deal with all of the material we will be covering. This type of practice is critical for your being able to master the material we will be covering and gauging your progress through the semester. Also, one exam will be made up of graded question sets you complete online. I expect you to read every assigned text chapter and I suggest that you complete the practice Internet problem sets (questions from the CONNECT site).

While the text provides the formal economic tools that will be utilized along with applications, there is no substitute for the constant exposure to economic processes at work that is provided by The Wall Street Journal. I strongly urge you to read this publication daily. I also encourage you to view television shows that frequently discuss economic issues, such as the Nightly Business Report (on PBS). Weekly magazines are also helpful. I especially recommend the Economic Forecast page of Business Week and special sections of U.S. News and World Report. Finally, an ever-increasing number of useful sources of information now exist on the Internet. I have listed many on my homepage: http://www.llardaro.com . Consult the section: "Recommended Sites." As many of you are no doubt interested in the stock market (and possibly bond markets), I strongly recommend that you consult the CNNMoney web site http://money.cnn.com/ daily for stories relating to economic events written clearly. A very good day-to-day reference is MarketWatch: http://www.marketwatch.com/ . For students interested in international economic information, I recommend the Morgan-Stanley Global Economic Forum: http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/index.html and a currency/macro site, http://www.dailyfx.com/ . Also, there is an excellent reference for online economic summaries of each major "number" released that week: http://fidweek.econoday.com/ . To get the overall summary of the week’s major numbers, which focuses upon much of what we will be covering in class, click on the item Simply Economics. Also, click on Market Focus for each day.

Finally, there are three web sites that I HIGHLY recommend. The first is INVESTOPEDIA: http://www.investopedia.com/ . Enter a business term and you will see a definition and possibly articles relating to this term. Second is ANSWERS.COM: http://www.answers.com/ . Also, enter a term and get answers from several fields along with footnote references. I HIGHLY RECOMMEND THEIR ONE-CLICK ANSWERS DOWNLOAD (the URL for that page is: http://www.answers.com/main/product_info.jsp ). The last reference is WIKIPEDIA, the online encyclopedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page .

GRADING
Four exams will be given during the semester, three in-class exams and graded CONNECT problem sets that in total will count as the fourth exam. There is also a final exam that will be given during the last night of class. All of these exams will consist entirely of multiple-choice questions. The final exam is selectively cumulative, testing proficiency in material covered throughout the entire semester.

Your grade will be based on total points earned from: (1) the highest three of the four regular-semester exams; and (2) the final exam. You are responsible for all assigned readings. Test questions will potentially deal with any of the assigned readings. Please note: THERE IS NO SCALE. Generally, the weights will be 20% for each of the best three regular term exams and 40% for the final exam. If, however, your final exam grade exceeds the average of your best three exams, I will change the weights to 60% for the final exam and 40% for the best three regular term exams. This is justified since the final exam is cumulative and, for some students, performance improves the longer they are exposed to the subject matter we discuss. Perhaps most importantly, I want to avoid discouraging students from continuing to participate in my course and attempting to master the material I cover. Letter grades (which include +/-) will be assigned on the basis of points earned, with 90+ as A, 80-89.9 as B, 70-79.9 as C, 60-69.9 as D, and F being less than 60 percent.

I strongly urge you to keep up with the material we are covering. THIS IS NOT A COURSE YOU SHOULD ALLOW YOURSELF TO FALL BEHIND IN! IT IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY TO CONTACT ME IF YOU ARE HAVING PROBLEMS. If you are unable to come to the regularly scheduled office hours, either e-mail me or see me after class and we will arrange a mutually agreeable time for us to meet.

Finally, no outside work will be accepted as a grade supplement. Incompletes are granted according to university policy. In the event that you are given an incomplete, you will be allowed one calendar year to complete the course requirements. After that, credit will be granted only after retaking the entire course.

SUGGESTED METHOD FOR STUDYING

The material in this course is analytical. Because of this fact, you cannot merely read and memorize the notes and expect to pass the exams. YOU MUST READ BOTH THE TEXT AND THE NOTES THROUGHOUT THE SEMESTER. AND, YOU WILL NEED TO READ TEXT CHAPTERS MORE THAN ONCE TO MASTER THEM. Let me suggest the following procedure as a way to learn the material we will be covering.

1. Read the chapter that is being covered. The first time you read it, you don't need to underline, just read it to get an overview of the main topics and ideas it contains.
2. Review the online notes that pertain to that chapter (and be in class as I explain their basis). Use the online notes as an outline.
3. Read the chapter a second time. Having read it once (along with the online notes), you should begin to master it. NOW you can underline parts of the chapter and make any additional notes you wish.
4. Look at the summary points at the end of the chapter. Can you explain the underlying basis for each of these points? If not, you don't really understand the material it refers to. Go back and read the section it pertains to (along with online notes that apply). If you still can't explain a point, write this down and bring it to me either after class, during office hours, or by e-mail.
5. In addition to the practice questions we will be doing in class, there are practice questions available on the CONNNECT site (the link is given above). Answer these questions and see how well you do. For the questions you get wrong, look at the part of the chapter it pertains to. What did the question require you to learn from this material? How did you learn this material? Synchronizing these will be crucial to your success in taking exams.

In addition to the practice questions we will be doing in class, there are other questions available on the text web site (the link is given above). Answer these questions and see how well you do. For the questions you get wrong, look at the part of the chapter it pertains to. What did the question require you to learn from this material? How did you learn this material? Synchronizing these will be crucial to your success in taking exams

COURSE OUTLINE

1. INTRODUCTION
McConnell, Brue, and Flynn, Chapter 1 (up to p.10).
Online Notes: "Economics IQ Test":
http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/lardaro/ZV/Econ_IQ.pdf
Online Notes: Rational Decision Making: http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/lardaro/ZV/Rational Decision Making.pdf
Online Notes: "Traditional Introduction to Economics":
http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/lardaro/ZV/Trad_Intro.pdf
The New Normal: http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Gross%20Sept%20On%20the%20Course%20to%20a%20New%20Normal.aspx
*"Amos Web Encyclonomic," http://www.amosweb.com/cgi-bin/awb_nav.pl?s=wpd
*Salary Calculator: http://www.homefair.com/Find_A_Place/Calculators/SalaryCalc/
*A Journalist's Guide to Economic Terms: http://www.tuition.com.hk/dictionary/

2. SCARCITY, PRODUCTION POSSIBILITIES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
McConnell, Brue, and Flynn, Chapters 1 (pp. 11-end), 2.
Online Notes: "Production Possibilities":
http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/lardaro/ZV/Production_Poss.pdf
Use "Excess" Sales Tax Revenue for Education:
http://www.llardaro.com/useexcess.htm

3. SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND ELASTICITY
A. Supply and Demand
McConnell, Brue, and Flynn, Chapter 3.
Online Notes: "Supply and Demand":
http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/lardaro/ZV/SUPPLY_AND_DEMAND.pdf
*Starbucks Plays Common Joe: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123413848760761577.html?mod=testMod#printMode
*What is Driving Oil Prices? http://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/re/2005/a/pages/oil_prices.cfm
Factory Jobs are Back, but Skill Shortages Exist: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/02/business/economy/02manufacturing.html
*The Futures Market as a Forecasting Tool: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional/02/01/FuturesMarket.pdf
*Introduction to Technical Analysis: http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/
*Are Stocks Really Cheap?: http://www.greenfaucet.com/print/17433#
*Stock Picking Strategies: http://www.investopedia.com/university/stockpicking/
*A Beginner's Guide to Hedging: http://investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/basics/03/080103.asp

TEST 1

B. Elasticity of Demand
McConnell, Brue, and Flynn, Chapter 4.
Online Lecture notes: "Elasticity of Demand"
http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/lardaro/ZV/Elasticity_of_Demand.pdf
*How Retailers Get Into Your Head: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25785197/print/1/displaymode/1098/
*Video Nasty: http://www.economist.com/node/18388998
25 Logos with Hidden Messages: http://www.graphicdesignblog.org/hidden-logos-in-graphic-designing/
*Sector ETF's: http://investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/exchange-traded-funds/09/investing-with-sector-etfs.asp
*Ethanol: Economic Gain or Drain? http://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/re/2008/c/pages/ethanol.cfm

4. EXCHANGE RATES AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE
McConnell, Brue, and Flynn, Chapter 38.
Online Notes: "Flexible Exchange Rates":
http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/lardaro/ZV/Flexible_Exchange_Rates.pdf
How Gold Affects Currencies: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/11/golds-effect-currencies.asp?partner=fxweekly7#axzz1RPyJ6lIi
Exceptional Currency Web Site: http://www.dailyfx.com/
*Carry Trade: http://www.investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/forex/07/carry_trade.asp
*Taking Advantage of a Weak Dollar: http://investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/forex/08/weak-usd.asp
*Burger Survey Provides Taste of International Economics: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional/04/01/international_econ.pdf
*Forex Basics: http://www.investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/forex/08/forex-concepts.asp
*The Morgan-Stanley Global Economic Forum": http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/index.html
*The US Trade Deficit: Sideshow to the New Economy?: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional/00/04/TradeDeficit.pdf
*The Currency Site: http://www.oanda.com
*Bloomberg Online - World Currencies:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/americas_currencies.html
Economist.com Country Briefings: http://www.economist.com/countries/

5. COST AND PRODUCTION THEORY
McConnell, Brue, and Flynn, Chapter 7.
Online Notes: Production and Productivity:
http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/lardaro/ZV/production.pdf
Online Notes: Costs of Production: http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/lardaro/ZV/COSTS_OF_PRODUCTION.pdf
*Taking the Mystery from Productivity: http://www.llardaro.com/labor_prod.htm
*Edwards Demming: http://www.economist.com/business/management/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=13805735
Lean Production: http://totalqualitymanagement.wordpress.com/2008/10/28/lean-production-system/
*Beyond Detroit: http://www.wired.com/print/culture/culturereviews/magazine/17-06/nep_auto
*Remarks by Chairman Greenspan on Productivity and the New Economy:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/19961016.htm
*"Have Computers Made Us More Productive? A Puzzle:" http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional/98/10/ComputersProductive.pdf

7. MONOPOLY AND MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION
McConnell, Brue, and Flynn, Chapters 10, 11.
Monopoly: http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/lardaro/ZV/MONOPOLY.pdf
Online notes:http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/lardaro/ZV/MONOPOLISTIC_COMPETITION.pdf
*A Look at Return to Invested Capital: http://www.fool.com/news/foth/2000/foth000927.htm
*Industry Information Resource: http://www.fool.com/Seminars/2001/CSTMF/CSTMF_LP010622a.htm

TEST 2

8. INTRODUCTION TO MACROECONOMICS
McConnell, Brue, and Flynn, Chapter 23.
Online Notes: "Introduction to Macroeconomics":
http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/lardaro/ZV/Intro_to_Macro.pdf
*Triple Whammy Fuels Economic Doubts: http://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/re/2008/c/pdf/natl_overview.pdf
*The Mortgage Crisis: http://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/re/2008/c/pdf/mortgage.pdf
*The NBER's Recessing Dating Procedure in the Light of Current Developments: http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html
*Economic Indicators You Should Know: http://www.investopedia.com/university/releases/
*How RI Might Escape a Recession; http://www.llardaro.com/wealth_eff.htm

Data References:
Seasonal Adjustment of Data: http://www.dallasfed.org/data/basics/seasonally.html
Economic Report of the President -- Statistical Tables:
http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/download.html
The Statistical Abstract of the United States:
http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/statab2006_2009.html
Foreign Labor Statistics: http://146.142.4.24/cgi-bin/surveymost?in
Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED): http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
International Economic Data: http://www.dallasfed.org/data/interdata.html
BLS Major Indicator Releases:  http://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
The US Economy at a Glance: http://stats.bls.gov/eag/eag.us.htm

9. BASIC MACROECONOMICS: THEORY AND MEASUREMENT
A. Gross Domestic Product (learn only the "expenditure approach")
McConnell, Brue, and Flynn, Chapter 24.
Online Notes: "Gross Domestic Product":
http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/lardaro/ZV/GDP.pdf
Ranking Economic Data: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/06/updated-list-ranking-economic-data.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29&utm_content=Twitter
Recessions and Business: http://investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/economics/08/recession-affecting-business.asp
Recessions and Industries that Thrive: http://investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/stocks/08/industries-thrive-on-recession.asp
B. The Basic Keynesian Model
McConnell, Brue, and Flynn, Chapters 27, 28.
Online Notes: "Algebra Basics for Macroeconomics":
http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/lardaro/ZV/algebra.pdf
Online Notes: "The Basic Keynesian Model":
http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/lardaro/ZV/Basic_Keynesian_Model.pdf
As Economy Needs Cash, Americans are Saving:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28965133/print/1/displaymode/1098/
*Are We Saving Enough? http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/Commentary/2000/0700.pdf
*Household Asset Values vs. Savings: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional/06/07/household_assets.pdf
*Families are Digging Deeper into Debt: http://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/re/2006/c/pdf/digging_into_debt.pdf
*Consumer Confidence Surveys, http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional/03/04/confidence.pdf
C. Unemployment and Inflation
McConnell, Brue, and Flynn, Chapter 26.
Online Notes: "Inflation and Unemployment":
http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/lardaro/ZV/Inflation_&_Unemployment.pdf
Seasonal Adjustment of Data: http://www.dallasfed.org/research/basics/seasonally.cfm
Data Analysis -- DataBasics: http://www.dallasfed.org/research/basics/index.cfm (highly recommended)
*The Employment Report: http://investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/04/092204.asp
What the Unemployment Rate Doesn't Tell US: http://financialedge.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0609/What-The-Unemployment-Rate-Doesnt-Tell-Us.aspx
*Why Hiring Might Not Rise in a Recovery: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-jobless-recovery2-2009jul02,0,4591258,print.story
*Five Myths about Deflation: http://www.case.com.pl/upload/publikacja_plik/894167_Five%20Myths%20about%20deflation.pdf
*Chairman Greenspan: "Problems with Price Measurement": http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/19980103.htm
*Government Revises Job Tracker: http://cnnfn.cnn.com/2000/05/08/economy/jobs/

TEST 3

10. FISCAL POLICY AND THE NATIONAL DEBT
McConnell, Brue, and Flynn, Chapter 30.
Online Notes: "Fiscal Policy":
http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/lardaro/ZV/Fiscal_Policy.pdf
Do Tax Cuts Pay for Themselves" http://www.cbpp.org/3-8-06tax.htm
*The Return of Voodoo Economics: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/14/AR2006051400806.html

11. AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGGREGATE SUPPLY, AND INFLATION
McConnell, Brue, and Flynn, Chapter 29.
Online Notes: "Aggregate Demand - Aggregate Supply":
http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/lardaro/ZV/AD-AS.pdf
An Explanation of Stagflation: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/stagflation.asp?partner=ntu3#axzz1RttV1LbP
*Inflation's Effect on Investments: http://www.pimco.com/EN/Education/Pages/InflationPrimer.aspx
*Cost-Push vs Demand Pull Inflation: http://investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/05/012005.asp
*Inflation is Everywhere and Always a Monetary Phenomenon: http://mattrognlie.com/2011/05/07/inflation-is-always-and-everywhere-a-monetary-phenomenon/
*Flaw in US Data Overstates Growth, Productivity: http://www.cnbc.com/id/33786428
*Inflation-Protected Securities: http://investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/04/091504.asp
*Deflationary Shocks: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/deflationary-shocks-economy.asp
*Inflation's Economic Cost: http://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/re/2006/c/pages/inflation.cfm
*Predicting Inflation: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional/02/01/Inflation.pdf
*Stagflation 1970s Style: http://investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/economics/08/1970-stagflation.asp
*Understanding Supply-Side Economics: http://investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/05/011805.asp
*Rising Oil Prices and Turmoil: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional/01/01/OilPricesTurmoil.pdf
*The Microchip Flexes its Muscle: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional/01/07/Microchip.pdf
*Producing More with Less: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional/00/07/Producing.pdf
"The New Economy: What It Really Means," Business Week, 11/17/97: http://www.businessweek.com/1997/46/b3553084.htm

12. MONEY AND MONETARY POLICY
McConnell, Brue, and Flynn, Chapters 31, 32, 33.
Online Notes: "Money and Monetary Policy":
http://www.uri.edu/artsci/ecn/lardaro/ZV/MONEY.pdf
*Everything You Need to Know About Bonds: http://www.pimco.com/EN/Education/Pages/Everythingyouneedtoknowaboutbonds.aspx
*US Treasury Yields (this site provides a graph of the current Yield Curve): http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html
*Intro to the Libor: http://investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/economics/09/london-interbank-offered-rate.asp
*Behind the Scenes of your Mortgage: http://investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/pf/07/secondary_mortgage.asp
*Credit Default Swaps: http://investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/optioninvestor/08/cds.asp
*Market Crashes: http://www.investopedia.com/features/crashes/
The Credit Crisis Visualized: http://www.getrichslowly.org/blog/2009/02/25/the-credit-crisis-visualized/
*Who is to Blame for the Sub-Prime Crisis? http://investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/07/subprime-blame.asp
*Why Housing Bubbles Pop: http://investopedia.com/printable.asp?a=/articles/07/housing_bubble.asp
*"US Monetary Policy: An Introduction,"
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/federalreserve/monetary/index.html
"The Beige Book" of the Federal Reserve, released every six weeks:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/BeigeBook/2007/
*The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Recessions: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci2-7.pdf
*What Policymakers can Learn From Asset Prices: http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040415/default.htm
*Flow of Funds Accounts of the US: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/Z1/Current/
*"The Natural Rate, NAIRU, and Monetary Policy,"http://www.frbsf.org/econrsrch/wklyltr/wklyltr98/el98-28.html

FINAL EXAM