US Role in International Community

A    F    K    N   R

A

Robert Ackerman, "Globalization, instability define threat to west," Signal 12/2000

• Fear of openness being used for less than noble purposes National Intelligence Council – sees these new problems – Osam bin Labed, biological warfare…

Ibrahim Alloush, "The economics of Zionst peace," The Free Arab Voice 3/16/2000

America debates its role in the world (great links)

Perry Anderson, “Force and Consent.” Harpers 1/03

• ·        How far is war strategy different from previous strategies? Since wwii there were two goals 1. make the world safe for capitalism 2. retain uncontested primacy in capitalist world – no tension between them in cold war – under umbrella of Marshall Plan and Bretton Woods  we still have them , but after the all of the wall (1990) they may not be in harmony

• ·        Why change?  1. Under Bush US has more assertive role (unilateral) – Kyoto - was changed after 9/11 – now Bush could do what he wanted with little opposition

• ·        2. RMA – awesome power imbalance – use our competitive advantage – so we export war.

• ·        There has been an ideological shift – Clinton wanted international justices and democratic peace – the emphasis is different under Bush.

• ·        Focus on war on terror and ignore human right means we move away from Europe and toward Japan and China. Maybe that is who we are really like – plutocracy / kleptocracy

• ·        9/11 meant that we could push preemptive to stop spread of nuclear weapons – we had in Kosovo already stepped into a civil unrest – so the president was there.

• ·        Build a democracy in Arab world – project positive image –

David Armstrong, “Dick Cheney’s Song of America: Drafting a plan for global dominance.”  Harpers 10/03

• US to rule the world – a story of unilateralism and domination – US retain its overwhelming superiority and keep others from challenging
• Like Babe Ruth – pointed over fence ten years ago and now the ball is sailing over the fence
• After fall of wall the world would have regional conflicts – the US would need to move from containment to managing unforeseen conflicts by maintaining power
• Powell saw the handwriting – saw unknown threats as real threats so it would be difficult to get $s
• Wolfowitz also working on plan – and Cheney wanting big defense
• Bush I delivered a new strategy statement – next day Iraq invades Kuwait
• Powell said, “I want to be the bully on the block”
• 1992 published Defense Planning Guide – “US prevent re-emergence of a new rival”  / useof preemptive force /  Powell adds two war idea
•  it would use forces to protect US and friends from WMD, terrorism, missles, Persian Gulf oil
• was rejected by Clinton who pushed economic diplomacy, multilateral institutions, trade, coaltion building
• Clinton blasted for not taking out Hussein by Wolfowitz, and peace-keeping in Somalia and Haiti where US interests were not obvious.
• Old plan is now the new plan under Bush

Kevin Baker, “We’re in the Army Now: The GOP’s plan to militarize our culture.”  Harpers Oct 2003

• Bush has used military bases as backdrops for his appearances – they are friendly

• High confidence in US military – not driven by greed – so Bush identifies with revered institution PLUS

• Republicans have always been the war party – party of “blood and iron” Lincoln, Republicans think they are the nation : government become larger more intrusive less accountable under Republicans

• Draft did not make military democratic, but there was a link between it and the electorate  - needed to support use of troops

• Republicans control media (Clear Channel and Dixie Chicks”

Robert Baer, "The fall of the house of Saud," The Atlantic Monthly May 2003

Barnett & Gaffney, “Global transaction Strategy,” Military Officer 4/30/2003

• “Washington now stands at a historical “creation point” much like the immediate post-World War II years.”

• War in Iraq was when “Washington took real ownership of strategic security in the age of globalization.”

• New paradigm “Disconectedness defines danger.”

• World is now two groups – functioning core and non-integrating gap (Africa (poor), Middle east (Culture, religion))

• Pre 9/11 globalization was commercial / private affair

• Most military efforts have been in non core

• US lives above its means – what do we provide = security, technology, cultural exports

• Beyond containment;

• If globalization is to continue we need four flows

• 1.      flow of people from gap

• 2.      flow of security from core

• 3.      flow of energy from gap

• 4.      flow of investments from old core to new core (US to China)

• Transaction strategy

Barnett & Gaffney, Top Ten Post-Cold War Myths, The U.S. Naval Institute, 2001

Rachel Bronson, “When Soldiers Become Cops,” Foreign Affairs, N/D 2002 (Abstract)

• ·        We need police and we have soldiers – they are not the same – and if we build police force politicians will overextend US

• ·        We fail to worry about exit strategy – so we get stuck like in Iraq and Afghanistan

• ·        Technology has driven changes in military –

• ·        Caused problems with Europe where there is more concern for peacekeeping – Europeans see threat in future from unstable countries – need peacekeeping

US Senator Robert Byrd “The truth will emerge” Senate Floor Remarks - May 21, 2003

• Bush used 9/11 to rush to war – like Gulf of Tonkin in Vietnam – Iraq was not a threat to the US
• Dislikes claim we are liberators
• “How could we have been so impossibly naïve? How could we expect to easily plant a clone of US culture, values, and government in a country so riven with religious, territorial, and tribal rivalries, so suspicious of US motives, and so at odds with the galloping materialism which drives the western style economies?
• We may have sparked a race to WMD with Iraq invasion

"Capitalism and democracy," The Economist 6/28/2003

David Carr, “The Futility of ‘Homeland Defense,’” The Atlantic Monthly 1/2002

• ·        America is HUGE

• ·        America is open society – look at measures of international interactions - # people entering country (350 million in 2000), packages (FedEx handles 5 million each day…)

• ·        Group targets are plentiful (sports stadiums, speedways, tall buildings, Malls,

• ·        Small number of peole responsible for borders, ports, immigration

• ·        Look at other wars declared internally – war on drugs = still have hard core users and price still declines – and we use same forces in Homeland Security

• ·        Looks t stats on ports

"Could worse be yet to come?," The Economist 11/3/2001

“Councils of War” James Fallows – The Atlantic Monthly 1/

• ·        Wars are excuses for doing things would like to have done anyways – Eisenhower and interstate highway system, / has been tool of national development and industrial policy – Internet, space & semiconductors

• ·        Immigration policy – in WWI the immigrants scored poorly on military tests – this helped close the doors

• ·        Wars have changed economic assumptions – Civil War – rushed North toward industrialization, Vietnam toward inflation, now we see how much of new Economy was new

• ·        war will reverse frictionless economy

• ·        George Bush I lost by alienating the right, George Bush II may keep the right while the war moves country to the middle

• ·        rise in recognition of role for government –

Hernando de Soto, "The constituency of terror," NYT 10/15/2001

James Fallows, “Low-Class Conclusions”  – The Atlantic Monthly 4/1993

• Vietnam war stats

“Economic Globalization: Stability or Conflict?" Institute for National Strategic Studies

• globalization has downside – weakens certain regimes – home o rogue regimes – hostility and sporadic aggression
• downside – Asian Crisis = first real crisis of globalization
• post WW II US pursued community building – eco and security
• globalization of finance differs from globalization of trade and investment in 3 ways

1. fluidity and speed
2. destabilizing in near term
3. contagion effects – look at size of hedge funds and derivatives
4. can be punishing – look at Clinton and bond traders
• globalization’s disintegrative effects – forces change, rewards flexibility, rewards efficiency, accelerated technological change - why income gap growing (immigration, women into work force, technological change, stock market boom (but how would dividends help middle class?)  globalization shortens time for competitive adjustment
• globalization and anti-Americanism –
• what are economic and security goals – market-oriented macro policies, sound and transparent financial system, functioning legal system, civilian control of military, labor standards and human rights, participation in rule-based international organizations

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F

Darryl Fears, "For Blacks, the war is another divide," Wshingtonpost.com 3/25/2003

William Finnegan, “The economics of empire,” Harpers 5/03

• Bush statements suggested he thought 9/11 was related in some way to anti free trade movement – Bush says we will defeat them by encouraging trade George Soros calls the view “market fundamentalism”  = Washington consensus – we push it directly and indirectly through IMF, World Bank – mantra of openness, privatization, deregulation, unrestricted movement of capital, and lower taxes. 
• In the 2002 Bush national security plan we have preemption and also free trade
• We have the theory – and then we have the practice – let’s look at Argentina – did it all – it is a mess: and then there is China and Malaysia
• US and rich countries not play fair – seen in Cancun
• Example of Bolivia – how it needed to agree to ‘structural reform’ to get bailout – privatization,….
• Talks of US control over IMF – after Thatcher & Reagan they pushed Washington consensus
• Asia – countries not agree, imposed local content laws – IMF ushed – we get Asian Crisis
• “The market fundamentalist’s version of history and economics is both more scriptural and expedient than it is factual.”  - look at South America –
• belief that lower taxes is important has no basis in reality – and then there is the belief that economic growth I good – not always – not if it is unequal so it promotes unrest or if it is damaging to resources – economic hero = cancer patient in a bitter divorce.”
• And then the rich rig the rules to favor them – steel tariffs and ag supports –  we keep them down
• Why not make the international organizations representative of the world’s people

Flanagan, Frost, and Kugler, “Challenges of the Global Century: Report on the Project on Globalization and national Security,” Institute for National Strategic Studies, 2001

• Positives of globalization= creates wealthier world, stimulates innovation, rewards good governance, creates new markets, encourages multilateral cooperation, fosters political participation.
• Negatives widening income gap, social upheavals, financial shocks, facilitates international crime and proliferation of WMD
• National security implications – fast,mobile, often deployed to deal with regional conflicts, peacekeeping
• Manifestations of globalization

1. economic growth and disparities “the speed of changes in income and its distribution within and among countries can rock political stability.”  - widening gap in developing world – “if social safety nets are weak or absent, openness to globalization can severely destabilize the political system and hurt the poorest members of society.. … they also ignite anti-Americanism.”    Globalization helps spread religion which has helped people deal with alienation, disruption, anxieties
2. democracies and market economies – widening gap is breeding ground for extremists – appeal to fearful or uprooted / where rule of law is weak globalization has increased corruption / organized crime, drug trafficking, terrorism are spreading – using same system / attitudes toward work, education, change are important
• Globalization and Geopolitics – fosters fragmentation and integration, localization and internationalization, decentralization and centralization / diminishing power of state / democratic core – could it expand outward – or will it implode  MAP – southern belt of strategic instability
• Uneven regional impact of globalization – political islam and Arab nationalism are reactions to globalization – it is distrusted

Thomas Friedman, “World war III” NYT editorial

• 9/11 was pearl harbor / pits superpower against “Super-empowered angry men”
• need dialogue with middle east countries – why falling behind

“Four threads, one mighty rope” The Economist 11/17/01 –

• review of Walter Russell Mead book – looks at American foreign policy – its strength is that it is result of democracy and it is based on money as well as politics – identifies 4 schools of thought
• Hamiltonians – focus on alliance between business and government (Teddy Roosevely, Bush I)
• Wilsonians – moral obligation to promote democratic values (Jimmy Carter)
• Jefferesonians – worried about safeguarding democracy at home (George Kennan)
• Jacksonians – believe in economic prosperity of Americans. (Washington, Patton, Grant)

**Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree,

• Cold War system and globalization system
• Cold war system – defining technologies (nuclear weapons and 2^nd industrial rev; globe was a divided space, dominant ideas communism vs capitalism, demographic trends – not E-W, but S-N; definig anxiety nuclear annihilation
• The driving force behind globalization is free-market capitalism
• “While the defining measurement of the Cold War was weight – particularly the throw-weight of missles –the defining measurement of the globalization system is speed –speed of commerce, travel, communication and innovation.” From Einstein’s e=mc2 to Moore’s Law, from How big is your missle to How fast is your modem?
• Cold war would be sumo wrestling, globalization is 100 meter dash
• Cold war – enemies / globalization competitors
• Globalization demographics – urbanization,
• Col War – symbol of division but leadership – hot line vs globalizaion = Internet – no one in charge

Richard Gardner, The One Percent Solution, Foreign Affairs J/A 2000

• US foreign policy costs only1% of federal budget

Gelb & Rosenthal, “The rise of ethics in foreign policy.” Foreign Affairs M/J 2003

John Lewis Gaddis, "A Grand Strategy of Transformation", Foreign Policy, no. 133 (Nov/Dec 2002)

John Lewis Geddes, “Living in Candlestick Park,” Atlantic Monthly April 1999

• The state system may get shaken to its foundations
• Pople think of 1989 as wall falling – he remembers being in Candelstick Park during World Series when earthquake hit
• Cold War seemed like a game – falling domnoes,..
• Today soud like geologists – fault line conflicts – tectonic plates colliding – Cold War played by rules – maybe not now
• First belief was that the fault line was between democracy and capitalism vs authoritarianism – but what if fault line is between democratization and marketization?
• Ian Clark of U of Wales defines globalization as “integration, interdependence, multilateralism, openness, and interpenetration.”  Fragmentation implies “disintegration, autarky, unilateralism,, …separatism, heterogeneity.”
• “states justify their existence, in large part, by securing their citizens well being, whether by creating and maintaining jobs, providing a social safety net, or protecting the environment. A regime that must leave its people at the mercy of market forces is not likely to enhance its reputation in their eyes. Yet globalization requires placing national economies within an inherently unpredictable environment.”
• “The social and political compromises that saved capitalism through an expansion of state authority early in the twentieth century no longer constrain it. And states now are as ill positioned as towns and villages were then to resist the buffeting of markets, to relieve the dislocation they can produce.”  We are also seeing political fragmentation – gives states less power
• Clausewitz “war was an extension of policy by other means.” 
• States go back only about 500 years
• Extension of rational thought into political thinking – no reason for rational individual to go to war – but we do
• States will lose some of their power – to see what it might be like – let’s look at things before states existed – it wasn’t pretty – and it wasn’t rational – but it was everywhere- a basic feature of man – it exists independent of cultures
• “But as democracy spread in the twentieth century, the priorities of empires and states began to diverge.” They were similar before then, but not after.
• States require equality, empires require inequality .  In 21^st century which will be the dominant theme?  - what if Kaplan’s anarchy in poor world expands?  We have great capabilities to repackage everything
• We tend to see increasing inequality – we should not believe that economic integration and political self-determination mean a better world.”
• We have the problem of believing in absolutes – free trade is good for all

"George bush and the axis of evil," The Economist 2/2/2002

Graham-Brown, Sarah , “Why Another War? A Background on the Iraq Crisis?”

• ·        Bush administration staffed with neo-conservatives – saw need to contain Iraq, sanctions breaking down, Saddam’s survival, and ideology of neo-conservatives came together and 9/11 was opportunity

• ·        Iraq history 1968 Ba’th party comes to power – secular til 1980s, oil financed welfare state

• ·        Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988) – just another phase of the ancient Persian-Arab conflict that had been fueled by twentieth-century border disputes, The Iraqis also perceived revolutionary Iran's Islamic agenda from 1979 Iranian revolution  as threatening to their pan-Arabism. Khomeini, bitter over his expulsion from Iraq in 1977 after fifteen years in An Najaf, vowed to avenge Shia victims of Baathist repression. Baghdad became more confident, however, as it watched the once invincible Imperial Iranian Army disintegrate, as most of its highest ranking officers were executed. Baghdad originally planned a quick victory over Tehran. Saddam expected the invasion of the in the Arabic-speaking, oil-rich area of Khuzistan to result in an Arab uprising against Khomeini's fundamentalist Islamic regime. This revolt did not materialize, however, and the Arab minority remained loyal to Tehran. – Iran unveiled its "human wave" assaults - Within a four-week period between February and March 1984, the Iraqis reportedly killed 40,000 Iranians and lost 9,000 of their own men, but even this was deemed an unacceptable ratio, and in February the Iraqi command ordered the use of chemical weapons.

• ·        Desert Storm (1990-1991) – Iraq under severe budgetary pressure, Iraq upset that Kuwait would not forgive loans to Iraq, was tapping into its oil field (Ramala), and Jkuwait high oil production that pushed down oil prices – passed a number of UN resolutions – Jan 16, 1991 air war starts / cease-fire on March 3, 1991 –

• ·        Post desert storm (1991-2001) - April 1991 UN resolution to ‘clean up’ Iraq’s weapons.. UNSCOM established to verify Iraq’s compliance – some suggestions this was used by US for intelligence – did clear out a nuclear weapons program that was close to making a bomb. – questions about merit of sanctions against country without democratic government  - in 1995 oil-for-food reinstated - in1999 Iraq suspended oil shipments to raise oil prices – Saudi Arabia and Kuwait increase production – 1998 Clinton signs Iraq Liberation Act – regime change is US policy

• ·        Post 9/11/01 – preemption becomes bush policy – UN Charter allows military attack only in self-defense – so Bush tried to show it was a threat to US – link to Al Quaeda – used human rights as justification (but never cared about it before

George Bush and the axis of evil”

• Economist 2/2/02spech1/22/02 State of Union speech – “Axis of evil” – compar5able to Ronald reagan’s “evil empire” – lists non-negotiable demands about values the rule of law…respect for  women…private property…free speech…equal justice”

Joy Gordon, “Cool war: economic sanctions as a weapon of mass destruction” Harpers 11/02

• UN adopted sanction in 1945 Charter – used them 14 ties – used against Saddam – 500,000 Iraqi children under 5 died
• Role of US in denying humanitarian aid to Iraq – any wonder they hate us – source of the power behind 9/11
• Maybe we sacrifice with smaller cars and less stuff – but not likely

Edward Gresser, “Toughest on the Poor: America’s Flawed tariff System,” Foreign Affairs N/D 2002 Abstract

• Tariffs are no longer interesting so not studied – but if you do look you find they are truly unfair to the poor /  poor in US pay higher tariff rates than wealthy, poor countries pay higher tariff rates on their exports to US
• Two groups in US – some manufactures want to open world to their products (Semiconductors, chemicals, capital goods) and others that want protection (shoes, extiles, glassware..)  in 3 rounds of tariff negotiation (Kennedy & Uruguay GATT and Information Technology Agreement of WTO we satisfied both groups
• Tariffs for expensive consumer goods are low, while for light consumer goods it is a different story – 13.8% for suitcases, 11.4% for shoes and cloths
• Does not work too well – we have seen BIG declines in protected industries

Robert Higgs, "Market's dangerous liaison with war," 

Michael Hirsh, "Bush and the World Foreign Affairs S/O 2002

Edward Hoagland “The American Dissident,” Harpers 8/03

• “”Things are not going well, and patriotism is the last refuge not only of a scoundrel but of confusion also.”
• “Dissent is not for breadwinners”
• “Wrinkles simulate sagging hopes…”
• “[Y]ou can’t dissent in in earnest if you have no intimations of what you believe.”

Samuel Huntington, “The Clash of Civilizations?”  Foreign Affairs Summer 1993

http://www.lander.edu/atannenbaum/Tannenbaum%20courses%20folder/POLS%20103%20World%20Politics/103_huntington_clash_of_civilizations_full_text.htm

• After fall of wall many looking for a way to create order out of new world – end of history… he sees it as the fault line will not be ideology or economics but it will be be cultural – the conflicts will be between cultures
• Earlier conflicts between princes after Treaty of Westphalia – trying to expand territory – then after French Revolution it became wars between nations – lasted until end of WWI – then we had battles of ideology – communism, fascism-Nazism, and liberal democracy then between liberal democracy and communism – that ended when the wall came down. 
• During cold war world was divided into First, Second, Third Worlds – based on economy – now group them by culture and civilization
• Civilization is cultural entity – highest level of cultural identity
• Major civilizations = “Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American, and possibly African”
• Why will differences be along cultural lines?

• ·        differences are basic – one of differences is religion (also language, history, culture, tradition) – different views on individual and group, parent and child, citizen and state, husband and wife, rights and responsibilities

• ·        world is smaller place

• ·        processes of economic modernization and social change are separating people from local idenities – weaken nation state – religion provides a basis for identity

• ·        dual role of west – west is at pea of power and rest of world is returning to its roots – leaders of non west no longer BIG ties with west

• ·        cultural differences less likely to decline over time

• ·        economic regionalizing is increasing  - tough for Japan since her cultural difference will limit role in Asia – a factor that I important are overseas Chinese

• with communism gone need something = religion – to develop coalition
• describes fault line between civilizations – may be the boundary between Western Christianity and Orthodox Christianity and Islam  boundary from 1500
• to left they were catholic or protestant – all of western history / to right they were part of the – long history of conflict – Moors’ surge ended at Tours in 742 AD and then Crusades (11^th to 13^th centuries) – then Ottoman Turks took control in 14^th –m 17^th centuries  and laid siege to Vienna  - in 19^th century Europe gained upper hand and controlled Middle east
• after WWII western influence was in decline as empires were dismantled – we saw Arab nationalism and then Islamic fundamentalism  - battles in Israel and Middle east
• Arab reaction to Iraq’s loss in 1^st Gulf War – are embarrassed and pissed –
• On south of Islam  see the conflict between Islam and Africa in African civil wars (Sudan, Chad..)
• On North of Islam see the ethnic violence in Bosnia and Yugoslavia and Russia – history of Russia = Slavs battles with
• Hindu and Muslim – Pakistan and India
• China is rising power / Europe and US problems = US-Japan problems – but the latter are more often emphasized
• Civilization rallying cry: The kin-country syndrome

• ·        Saddam I 1990 war was not seen as bad guy by Islamic societies -

• ·        Could seeit in dismemberment of Yugoslavia – it was religious war

• The west vs the Rest

• ·        Sees international institutions representing western interests – but sold as international ideas

• ·        Western ideas of individualisn, liberalism, constitutionalism, human rights, equality, liberty, the rule of law, democracy, free markets, the separation of church and state often don’t fit wll with other cultures – western democracy in non west only in places it was imposed – how will rest of world respond? = isolation )N Korea), band wagonong the west, modernizing but not westernizing

·        The torn countries – they must decide

• ·        Countries with large numbers of people from different cultures are in trouble (Turkey – elite identify with West but elite in West do not relate to Turkey

• ·        Mexico – abandoned anti-America attitude and tried to get along – change it from Latin America to North America country

• ·        Russia – (west or Slavic)

·        The Confucian-Islamic Connection

• ·        Barriers to becoming western are lowest for Latin America and eastern Europe

• ·        Greater for Orthodox countries of former Soviet Union

• ·        Greater still for the rest – they resist and build their economies and military (big build-up in Middle east) – biggest is the C-I link

• ·        View that WMD are the equalizer and the Arab countries should get them

·        Implications for the west

• ·        International relations will be increasingly non westernized

• ·        Conflicts more numerous and bloody between civilizations

• ·        Primary axis will be west against the rest

• ·        Promote greater cooperation in ST – do not reduce military, try to drive a wedge between I-C, promote western sympathizers

• ·        Japan has become modern without western -  - we need to learn about these people – find some common denominators

Albet Hunt, "An owl makes sense of the post-cold war world," WSJ 8/29/1999

G. John Ikenberry, “The myth of post-cold war chaos” Foreign Affairs M’J 1996  Abstract

• ·        Many believe collapse of communism meant end of post WWII order – there were two elements of the system – containment of communism and organization of relationships between western democracies – included commitment to open world economy and multilateral management, stabilization of socio-economic welfare – believed no return to depression and bad policies ex Smoot Hawley – look at Atlantic Charter (reaffirmed principles of free trade, equal access to natural resources for all interested buyers, and international economic collaboration to advance labor standards, employment security, and social welfare.”   – here is where the liberal principles 1^st laid out (Churchill & Roosevelt) “Prosperous neighbors are good neighbors.”  Treasury official Harry Dexter under Roosevelt

• ·        Two postwar settlements 1. reaction to deteriorating relations ith Soviet Unin = containment = began with Truman Doctrine – aid to Greece and Turkey 2. reaction to economic rivalry and political turmoil of 1930 = liberal economic order – resulted in new institutions – Truman reaffirmed America’s commitment to ‘economic peace’ and when problems surfaced “the interests of all will be considered, and a fair and just solution will be found.” Conflicts resolved with rules and institutions

• ·        “The most basic conviction underlying the postwar liberal agenda was that the closed autarkic regions that had contributed to the worldwide depression and split the globe into competing blocks before the war must be broken up and replaced by an open, nondiscriminatory economic system.”

• ·        Belief in cooperative economic management – outgrowth of Roosevelt program, also believed in writing it down – setting up institutions.

• ·        In mid 1990s there was a convergence of thinking on economic policy –

• ·        The conflicts before were mostly within the western countries – collapse of the wall meant that the rest were now in the mix.

G. John Ikenberry, “America’s Imperial Ambition” Foreign Affairs S/O 2002 (no article)

• Two new realities – catastrophic terrorism and American dominance – US threatens to dismantle the institutions that will be needed in the future.

“In the name of god: A survey of Islam and the west” Economist insert 9/13/03

• in the name of islam – map of where Muslims are / writings of Egyptian who spent few BAD years in US – came back to write about the evil west – subservience of man to man rather than to allah – threats are capitalism, individualism, promiscuity, decadence – Islam has no central authority – no pope
• The Islamists are exploiting a vacuum – tendency for people to turn to religion to solve political problems (political islam) – sound like George Bush – sound like holy war / Muslim countries not join in democratization after WWII / only 1/5 of Muslims are Arabs / social contract of high oil prices has collapsed. – Arab Muslim world very slow growth since 1980 = result of bad institutions – was a pan Arab nationalism was main approach (led by Nassar in Egypt)
• Who is using whom in Egypt and Morocco?  Only opposition is Islamists -
• Is political islam past its peak or a mounting danger? – will it go the way of communism?  Look at examples Sudan, Iran, and Afghanistan – all shown to be losers -
• The law of man of the law of god? – how can you build system of govt around laws in Koran – too few and some are awful (lose hand for stealing)

• Who’s war is it anyway?  The main battle is within the Muslim world- and in Europe it is generational problem – Muslims are younger and the younger have high unemployment rate

• we should not focus on military aid to central Asia – predictions of shortage (Club of rome)  - what are causes of supply increase? GDP/bbl  - oil revenues will not save the day – ability to coop the younger generation

Robert Jervis, Realism, Neoliberalism and Cooperation - Understanding the Debate, International Security, Vol 21, No. 3 (Winter 1998/99)

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K

Donald Kagan, “The Lessons of Sept. 1, 1939” WSJ 9/1/99

• WWII happened because we let down on defense – in 1939 Germany’s army moved into Poland  (writings of a neo con)

Donald Kagen, Power and Weakness, Policy Review

• Europeans and Americans do not share a view of world – Europe turning away from power toward world of law and rules/ US mired in history where liberty depends on strength – US from Mars, Europe from Venus
• US less patient, more unilateral, more prone to force, US sees world in good vs evil
• Europe was not powerfulin Cold War, but location made them important – lost importance after wall came down
• Psychology of power and weakness – source of difference between US and Europe – Europeans have BUG success story – European Union done by cooperation and negotiation – so do it with the rest of world – they developed peace-loving attitude under US security umbrella

• The American military though about first strike once they believed they were clearly superior and had a chance to knock out Soviets

Robert Kaplan, “A Post-Saddam Scenario,” The Atlantic Monthly 11/2002

• Today Germany is home to many US soldiers – Iraq could be the same thing in the Middle East – reflects weakness of Saudi Arabia and BIG changes brewing in Middle East
• Two unsustainable policies – Israeli control of west bank and infidel troops in SA

Kaplan “Looking the world in the eye” The Atlantic Monthly December 2001

• Modernizing does not mean westernizing
• Asia expanding militarily and economically, Islam is exploding demographically
• Culture-consciousness is getting stronger – may be what binds countries/people together
• Western view that democracy and free markets are ideal will conflict with Islam and China
• “The dangerous clashes of the future are likely to arise from the interaction of western arrogance, Islamic intolerance, and Sinis [Chinese] assertiveness.”
• “In the emerging world of ethnic conflict and civilizational clash, Western belief in the universality of Western culture suffers from three problems: it is false, it is immoral, and it is dangerous.” 
• Huntington warns us about taking our history as a guide to what will happen in developing counties

Robert Kaplan, “Supremacy of Stealth: Ten Rules for managing the world,” The Atlantic Monthly, J/A 2003

• US possesses a global empire – how do we act to manage an unruly world?
• Sees future threts as symbolized by Columbia – loss of ideoplogy and rise of crime and terrorism
• “Precisely because they foment dynamic change, liberal empires – like those of Venice, Great Britain, and the United States – create the conditions for their own demise.” – spread of democracy weakens our control
• “At this moment in timeitis American power, and American power only, that can serve as an organizing principle for the worldwide expansion of a liberal civil society.”

1. Produce more Joppolos -  we need good people on the streets in other countries
2. Stay on the move – go wherever – do not stay long – we do not want territory - - we need ties with other militaries
3. Emulate 2^nd century rome – we are a multi ethnic society like Rome in 2^nd century – use these people in the countries
4. Use military o promote democracy -
5. be light and lethal
6. bring back the old rules – covert OK, UN is antiquated, too slow a response time – use special forces
7. remember the Philippines  Sp-AM War of 1898 – a successful counterinsurgency
8. mission is everything – stay focused – use as many people as we need
9. fight on every front – from Chinese – financial, trade, resource, legal, and environmental – get them on all counts – we need spin in countries where we have mass illiteracy and conspiracy theories run rampant – we need people to get out the info
10. Speak Victorian, Think Pagan -

Robert Kaplan, “The Coming Anarchy,” The Atlantic Monthly Feb 1994

• Look to Africa for vision of future where resources are scarce
• “West Afric is becoming the symbol of worldwide demographic, environmental, and societal stress, in which criminal anarchy emerges as the real “strategic” danger.”
• “To understand the events of the next fifty years, then, one must understand environmental scarcity, cultural and racial clashes, geographic destiny, and th transformation of war.”
• The environment as hostile power
• It is “the national security issue of the 21^st century.”
• George Kennan’s Foreign Affairs article of 1947 descibed containment as the strategy for survival – now we see an article by Homer-Dixon that looks at link between environment and conflict – where resources are scarce we will not see democracy but state control – opportunities for the Saddams of the future- worst degradation of world is where pop is growing fastest we will have world of Last Man (Fukayama) and First man (Hobbes)
• A new kind of war
• For many war is a good option – better than their existing life
• Van Creveld’s In Transformation of War – sees future of war because it is good
• If you combine the environment, changing view on war, and Huntington’s views on civilization plus Kaplan’s travels plus US failures in places like Haiti – you get nervous about future – some people find liberation in war – war less attractive as you get wealthier – if wars are not between states but between cultures you get more interest in them  - also the wars do not have territorial limits – the world has been “re-primitized”
• Distinction between war and crime will be lost
• The last map
• Will be dynamic – for example – look at Indian subcontinent – India has been feeding itself by borrowing its children’s resources
• World is walling off west Africa –

Robert Kaplan, “The Lawless Frontier,” The Atlantic Monthly 9/2000

• Afghanistan –Pakistan border – reveal future of conflict and dark side of globalization
• Sees similar to Yugoslavia after the Cold War and authoritarian Communists left – disintegrated into tribal conflicts – globalization will do this in Pakistan
• Urbanization gone wild, awful pollution, no separation of rich and poor in Karachi – crime infested
• Madrassa served the poor – closest to providing services to the people
• Musharraf coup in {Pakistan – maybe not a bad thing –
• There is a need for auhoritarian rule not democracy – they have none of the needed institutions for democracy

Robert Kaplan Was Democracy Just a Moment? The Atlantic Monthly Dec 1997

• Rise of Christianity in 4^th century AD did not make the world more peaceful or moral – just more complex.  Same true of democracy – collapse of communism says nothing about long term viability of democracy
• “history has shown there is no final triumph of reason..”
• “the democracy we are encouraging in many poor parts of the world is an integral part of a transformation toward new forms of authoritarianism; that democracy in the United States is at greater risk than ever before, and from obscure sources; and many future regimes, ours especially, could resemble the oligarchies of ancient Athens and Sparta more than they do the current government in Washington.”
• “Hitler and Mussolini both came to power through democracy.”  “if a society is not in reasonable health, democracy can be not only risky but disastrous.”  Look at Germany and Italy between wars
• “First create an economy, then worry about elections.”,
• Crime in Brazil limit democracy – in 1990s Russia falling apart because of democracy and China growing because it was not democratic
• “…democracy emerges successfully only as a capstone to other social and economic achievements.”
• Ghost of democracy is Cromwell who rid England of kings then reign of terror
• “founders were terrified of a badly educated populace that could be duped by a Cromwell, and a system that could allow too much power tofall into one person’s hands.”
• Social stability results from middle class – and democracy does not bring about middle classes
• World becomes harder to rule as countries become younger
• Singapore example of where non democracy worked – good government means freedom from poverty and corruption
• Democracy takes different forms in different countries
• “Of the world’s hundred largest economies, fifty one are not countries but corporations.”
• “Because they [multinational corporation] are in the forefront o of real globalization while the overwhelming majority of the world’s inhabitants are still rooted in local terrain, corporations will be free for a few decades to leave behind the social and environmental wreckage they create-abruptly closing a factory herein order to open an unsafe facility with a cheaper work force there. “
• US is not a nation of individuals – we are a herd – within a corporation we are restricted – this is our future – Universities being redefined by corporations – influence curriculum
• “The more appliances that middle-class existence requires, the more influence their producers have over the texture of our lives.” 
• “Democracy loses meaning if both rulers and ruled cease to be part of a community tied to a specific territory.”
• There are parallels between now and 1990s = social and economic upheaval –
• “Material possessions not only focus people toward private and away from communal life but also encourage docility.  The more possessions one has, the more compromises one will make to protect them.”   -Tocqueville saw material prosperity breeding servility and withdrawal – “industrial sheep.”
• Umpire regimes – like Roman empire and games – difference between those in the seat and those in the arena – same with games today
• “An elite with little loyalty to the state and a mass society fond of gladiator entertainments form a society in which corporate Leviathans rule and democracy is hollow.”  - in this environment democracy will be an oligarchy – we will be dominated by large corporations that control the media. 
• US is poised to turn itself into something it is not

• democracy was to triumph – but will it be the best system to serve the world – or will it even prevail in US…?
• Feels we get complacent in good times – blinded to “bleak forces of human nature”
• Democracy not always make society more civil – Hitler, Sudan 1985 – look at Africa, SA – democracy not the secret of peace and prosperity
• “Russia may be failing in part because it is a democracy and China may be succeeding in part because it is not”

• founding fathers wanted separation of people from power – elected officials not as prone to follow bad ideas

• how a great power’s position alters in peace is important to study how it fights in war – why growth differences – technology and organizational differences EX. gunned sailing ships after 1500 benefitted not all countries / steam power (and coal use) benefited some over others) – two way causality
• importance of location – flank nations (UK and Russia)  - US civil War marked importance of economic power
• why not oriental countries rise too – centralization of power, uniformity of beliefs – power of competition
• 1919 – economic and political world out of sinc
• shift from Med trade to Atlantic trade meant end of Europe
• imperial overstretch

Larry Kudlow, “A just and Affordable War,” National Review Economics Letter 10/23/2002

• 1960s inflation was due to Keynesians not war
• 1980s Ronald Reagan tax cuts and defense spending put the “Free-market capitalism imposed the ultimate defeat on state-planning communism.”

James Kurth, “American strategy in the global era,” Naval War College Review Winter 2000

• Cold war strategy was based on containment and nuclear deterrence – based on economic and social climate – same today – the change the four factors that must be considered in developing strategy – not develop in all counties at same speed
• Information economy – US favored because of its openness – reinforced liberal democracy – increased individual choice, decreased hierarchies
• Global economy – increased freedom and mobility of business and weakened pull of government – pushed idea of open markets
• Postmodern society replaces modern society – erosion of pillars of modern society – bureaucracies and institutions – and deference, duty, and loyalty – has replaced it with universal human rights and expressive individualism – individual rights are universal
• Multicultural society replaces nation state – cultural diversity – human rights –
• Liberal internationalism – push democracy and free markets – started with Wilson then Roosevelt – result is focus on humanitarian responsibilities -  rejects realistic view of Cold war – but will have trouble getting OK for troops – result is air operations
• US promotion of strategy has produced opposition – groups of opponents
• Losers from globalization = former Soveit Union countries (easier for catholic and protestant countries) tougher for Muslim/  Islamic world - / Islamic Middle East – represents a failed industry, failed modernity, failed nationality
• US leading West into postmodern, China lead east into modern, and Islam leading Middle east into premodrn
• Speres of influence vs liberal globalization – (Russia and China spheres of influence
• Rising power and leading power – US needs to lead China into supporting international order and stability- US should be boss of all bosses – we are role model

L’Esirit du Terorisme” Harpers 2/02

• We are in WWIV – and it is a war against globalization
• WWI put an end to Europe’s colonial empires, WWII put end to Nazism, WWII put end to Communism, WW IV put an end to globalizatio – world is resistant to globalization
• Terrorism is immoral – a reaction to immoral globalization

Jaques Leslie, “Running Dry: What happens when the world no longer has enough freshwater?” Harpers July 2000

Lewis Lapham, “American jihad,” Harpers 1/02

• American jihad against terrorism does not end
• Sending the American army to conquer greed, lust
• Bush was in political trouble – he was a “lawn-jockey”
• Initial response – Senate Oks $60 billion for missle defense system – and military is coming behind
• Not cut spending, just changes the recipients, just allows it to happen without question – under veil of patriotism
• Bush has indicated the threats to out freedom are  real – but he is the threat

Lewis Lapham, “Cause for dissent: Ten questions to ask the Bush administration,” Harpers 4/03

• Agiprop – why raise fears
• Korean exception – why not Korea
• “We refuse to live in fear” – we do live in fear – warnings…
• Somnambulism – slum clearance project on world scale – ideologs who want to remake the world
• Insolence of office – President “..I don\’t feel like I owe anybody an explanation”
• Negligence –bullied and bribed countries and leaders
• Our staunchest ally – we lok like Osama
• Barbed wire – Powell delivers speech with war picture covered at UN – loss of freedoms
• Sloth – war is easier than peace – especially when it is some else’s money
• Candor – where is the dissent

Lewis Lapham, “Drums along the Potomac” Harpers 11/01

·        “the nineteeth century enemies of the Gilded Age, like the contemporary believers in the Islamic jihad, had no political program in mind, no interest in labor reform or the redistribution of wealth….they wanted to annihalate “mankind’s tormentors” 

Lewis Lapham, “Hail Caesar!” Harpers 12/02

• Where was the press?  Where was the opposition?  In crises people rally around a leader
• A comment overheard “To whom does this man think he is talking? …To people so stupid that they can’t see through the windows of his lies? – he promotes Sadam as Stalin and takes eyes off of the domestic problems
• War College professor quoting historian A.J.P. Taylor “Though the object of being a Great Power is to be able to fight a Great War, the only way of remaining a Great Power is not to fight one.”
• How do we explain the silence?  “Posibly because Congress represents the constituency of the rich-not the will or the spirit of what was once a democratic republic but the interests of a scared and selfish oligarchy anxious to preserve its comforts in the impregnable vaults of military empire.”

Lewis Lapham, “The demonstration effect” Harpers 6/03

• ·        Demonstration effect of military maneuvers –

• ·        Weakness of iraq made its claims pointless

• ·        Conspiracy of press – not show horrors of war –

• ·        Michael Leeden, resident scholar at the AEI “Every ten years or so, the United States needs to pick up some crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business.” 

Lewis Lapham, “The Road to Babylon,”  Harpers 10/02

• Misgovernment is of four kinds – tyranny or oppression, excessive ambition (Sp Armada, Athens’ attempted conquest of Sicily, Germany), incompetence or decadence (Rome, Romanovs), folly or perversity
• Bush declared end of Cold War strategy of deterrent and containment
• We have a long history of dealing with thugs and despots who serve our interest (Diem, Shah, Marcos, Noriega, Saddam, Arafat..)
• Sees parallels between pelopenesian wars and now – how Atens got sucked into a losing war in Sicily by not knowing area – just thought they were unstoppable  - great quote from Thucydides to Nicias
• “In going to

Donald Livingston, “Dismantling Leviathan” Harpers 5/02

• Globalization of the last 19^th century brought us communism – the free trade movement that enviisoned little government was not really so peaceful (Pax Britannica was actually quite bloody as power was consolidated into nation states (US Civil War being an example) – communism was a reaction to the blunders of the last round of globalization. – liberal economies do go to war – its just not against each other – look at the US and the prisons and tell me we are not at war with low income people – with minorities

Bernard Lewis, “What went Wrong?" Atlantic Monthly 1/2002

• how had Islamic countries fallen behind after such great start?

• Muslim modernizers sought three avenues for reform military (defeats), economic (poor, oil dependent), political (no freedom)– all were lost
• Rise of Asia in 20^th century – made it worse – saw that it was possible to succeed – they just didn’t do it
• Response has been “who did this to us? He discounts each of them
• Mongols – invaded 13^th century
• Western imperialism / anti semitism – blame on British and French who controlled it in 19^th and 20^th centuries
• Religion – Islamic religion holds them back (but it was more open in medieval times and more prosperous
• Isalamists – problem is lost there heritage = Iran
• Reformers – need to cast off past (no separation of church and state, role of women (women are illiterate and they bring up kids) = Turkey
• Possible solutions in 20^th century socialism and nationalism have been discarded
• why did Islamic world fall from being a world leader? – now have countries tied to single commodity they take from ground  -  have no basis for replacement of oil – string of “shabby tyrannies, ranging from traditional autocracies to dictatorships that are modern only in their apparatus of repression and indoctrination.” 
• They fell behind the West and the Asia
• Why did it decline?

• 1.      Mongol invasion – but already in decline

• 2.      Nationalism and rule by Turks –

• 3.      Western imperilaism – 19^th & 20^th century – but ended 50 years ago

• 4.      Jews – antisemitism – made events of 1948 harder to swallow

• 5.      Religion – internal problem – Islam – but this was once center of power

• Fundamentalists – problem is they adopted alien notions

• Modernists – problem is retention of old ways / no separation of church and state / no use for women who are illiterate, but who teach the men for many years = a lost resource plus the men grow up submissive or arrogant and not good fit for freedom

• Two solutions failed – socialism and nationalism

• Two solutions on the table

• Iran – return to roots

• Turkey – separation of church and state

• If they do not get going then “the suicide bomber may become a metaphor for the whole region, and there will be no escape from a downward spiral of hate and spite, rage and self-pity, poverty and oppression, culminating sooner or later in another alien domination – perhaps from a new Europe reverting to old ways, perhaps from a resurgent Russia, perhaps from some expanding superpower in the east.”

Robert Malley, "We don't invade Iraq. Then what," NYT 1/2/2003

Leonardo Maugeri, “Not in Oil’s Name,” Foreign Affairs J/A 2003

• WWII showed importance of oil in international relations – Iraq not a conspiracy of oild companies – we will never have complete stability of oil prices – we are more worried about low il priuces in the future – OPEC can be attributed to too low a price of oil
• Middle East in 1950s was overrun with Arab nationalism – ripe for Soviet influence – Truman decided to secure oil reserves for wetern world – oil consumption grew rapidly between 1948-1970 – oil fueled a great leap forward for many countries – 1959 Eisenhower limited foreign oil imports to help US producers – drove down world price of oil – led to formation of OPEC in 1960  - multinationals power reduced by Six_day War in 1967 -  was fueled by cheap Middle east oil – drove others out of oil – gave power to Middle East – seized it in 1973
• 1979 was perfect storm (Iran hostages, fall of shah, 3-mile island, Soviet invasion of Afghanistan – BIG run up1986 oil bubble burst –
• cheap oil = double curse = bad for consumers since they keep consuming and producers who lose income – pop of Persian Gulf doubled in 12 years and 60% is <21
• Iraq o-line could wreak havoc in Middle East

Michael Mandelbaum, “The Inadequacy of American Power,” Foreign Affairs S/O 2002

• ·        Do not have the article

• ·        Contemporary world dominated by 3 ideas 1. peace is preferred basis for interaction

• ·        Democracy is optimal way to organize political life

• ·        Free markets best way to produce wealth – for 1^st time since French Revolution they have no serious challengers – although not universally accepted – illiberal ideas OF FASCISM AND COMMUNISM OF 20^TH CENTURY HAVE BEEN VANQUISHED

• ·        America’s goal is to expand these – it must follow two separate tasks?

George McGovern, “The Case for Liberalism,” Harpers 2/2002

• Democracy does not promise no mistakes – and Bush has made one
• Liberalism is political philosophy based on concept of progress, goodness of man, and standing for political and civil liberty
• Many examples from history where liberals pushed for policies that became mainstream – SS, Civil Rights, aid to education…
• McGovern says people who have gone to war will not promote it – Bush never went so it is easy to send troops to death

Walter Russell Mead, Special Providence: American Foreign Policy and How it Changed the World (review in The Economist 11/17/01

• ·        Democrat is good for foreign policy and foreign policy ahs been important for the US – US foreign policy values commerce and money

• ·        Four schools of thought

• 1.      Hamiltonian – strong alliance between big G and big business – Teddy Roosevelt, Bush I

• 2.      Wilsonians – moral obligation to promote democracy abroad – extend rule of law across borders Jimmy Carter

• 3.      Jeffersonains – safeguard democracy at home – apprehensive about war – J Q Adams, George Kennan

• 4.      Jacksonians – less democratic than populist, economic and political security upmost importance – Washington, Grant, Patton, McCain

• ·        Bush II seems a Hamiltonian (supporter of big business) and Jacksonian (defender

Michael Meese, “Economic globalization and national Security,” 

• ·        Changes in international trade

• ·        Financial market instability table of financial crises

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Joseph Nye “Redefining the national interests,” Foreign Affairs J/A 1999

• Hard power and soft power -
• NATO's poorly planned adventure in Kosovo has brought a critical question to the fore: just how should Americans define their national interest in the information age? The Soviet Union is gone, and an information revolution has transformed the nature of power. Few "A list" threats to American security loom large today. Global telecommunications have made humanitarian crises in far-flung places impossible to ignore. But before the United States embarks on another costly human rights crusade, Americans should recognize that moral values are only part of a foreign policy. Other essential priorities remain. If Washington neglects to handle the "A list," the consequences for global peace and prosperity will be dire.
• C-list events are important with media –
• Commit forces only in most egregious cases / humanitarian aid should be considered / avoid going it alone / let no more holocaust occur / we must be wary of civil wars for self-determination  

Joseph S. Nye, Jr, U.S. Power and Strategy After Iraq, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2003

Ralph Peters, “The plague of Ideas,” Parameters Winter 2000/2001

• Centrifugal force of globalization
• “hatreds and blood ties bind where law cannot””…the world’s ruling and educated classes began rediscovering the primitive nature of man and his unattractive tendencies when civilized constraints are brushed aside.”
• Now ideas can spread rapidly -  a first example was the printing press – “The Reformation was the crude dress rehearsal for today’s “information revolution.” 
• SP was victim of info revolution – European power went to the societies with more open information (Holland (trade) then England (ind rev)
• Collisions between cultures infect self doubt in the weaker ones
• The global information revolution is destructive of traditional orders
• Beginning of post colonial era – small empires falling apart (Pakistan, Russia, Nigeria – boundaries determined bt=y foreigners
• The weak need certainty, ..

Barry R. Posen and Andrew L. Ross, Competing Visions for U.S. Grand Strategy, International Security, Winter 1999

• ·        Four competing visions

• neo-isolationism = we have no threats and we have oceans – we reduce likelihood of being a target if we stay out of others conflicts/
• selective engagement = only to restrain other world powers – this could affect US – oil would be an example of reason to go to war
• cooperative security = US benefits from world peace – a publc good
• primacy =

• ·        believes Clinton has mixed mix of strategies

• ·        In 1993 Anthony Lake, Asst. to the Pres. Proposed shift in US policy “From Containment to Enlargement.”  - showed up in 1994 administration’s 1994 National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement.

• ·        Great table that compares the views

Barry R. Posen, The Struggle Against Terrorism - Grand Strategy, Strategy, and Tactics, (Winter 2001/02)

“Present at the Creation,” The Economist 6/29/02

·        The acceptability of American power

• o       Dean Acheson’s, Truman’s post WWII Secretary of State -  autobiography “Present at the creation” – took a while to take shape that ld world order was gone and new one would be determined in Washington and Moscow.

• o       When wall cam down many good things happened (end of division, technological change, spread of democracy) but some bad things too

• o       1. Number of dead beat countries falling into war and civil strife because of no cold war restraints. 2. technological change put great destructive power in hands of trouble makers. 3. new type of trouble maker -= messianic terrorist

• o       in 1990s UN acceptance of intervening in sovereign nations – now US policy

• o       Bush believes in doctrine of integration

• o       Today we build new order around fall of wall and 9/11

• o       Data on world GDP and defense spending – we are HUGE

• ·        New friends, new opportunities

• o       Mostly Russia and Central Asia – influence on Iran

• ·        Saddam and his sort

• o       Influence in Middle east from Iraq beachhead

• ·        Building countries, feeling generous

• o       Lebenon 1982, Somalia 1992-93, Haiti 1993-94, and Bosnia 1995-present are examples of our nation building – now we do it in A & I

• o       Very difficult when there are no existing institutions to build upon (government, rule of law, banks, property rights)

• o       How do we do it? Joint operations, enhanced US aid in multinational programes, increased integration in world economy

• o       Table on GDP by globalization index

• ·        Our law, our way

• o       US has used international agencies to push its view of law – reaction in Battle in Seattle in 2000 – Bush seems to reject the multilateral approach

• ·        Imperial overstretch?

• o       Last two times we had defense buildups we had deficits – 1^st in 60s gave us inflation while the second under Reagan gave us high interest rates – if defense spending soars will see Reagan II – but fallin $ could push rates interest rates even higher

• o       US in 90s like Japan in 1980s – inflated sense of oneself

• o       What impact will loss of confidence – corporations and investment banks – we can turn to military to se what is good

• o       Concerns 1. Americans not taking science – colleges make them hrd to pass because costly – political opposition to stem cell research – new growth industry

• ·        New world ahead

• o       Four sets of opponents

• 1.      terrorist organizations – look at Russia at outset of 20^th century – no reason to believe tsars would be overthrown by terrorists – now maybe we do not see same in Saudia Arabi, gypt, and Pakistan – will they be the 21^st century communists?

• 2.      countries trying to or with WMD –

• 3.      many disorderly events (India-Pakistan war, Chna, Indonesia,

• 4.      friends resentful of US power

Smanantha Power, "How to kill a country," The Atlantic Monthly 12/2003  (Atlantic Unbound | Interviews | 2003.12.03 )

• Destroy the engine of productivity
• Bury the truth
• Crush dissent
• Legislate the impossible
• Teach hate
• Scare off foreigners
• Invade a neighbor
• Ignore a deadly enemy
• Commit genocide
• Blame the imperialists

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“Radical thoughts on our 160^th birthday: A survey of capitalism and democracy.” The Economist, June 28, 2003

• ·        Today very different from first Economist – then fighting Corn Laws – today liberalism is being attacked by governments through protectionism and other policies – usually special interest groups persuade governments to close borders- If it comes to pass it will be the abuses in rich countries during the “new Economy”

• ·        Liberty’s great advance

• o       The gap between the west and the rest grew since 1945 – except we see Asia did well

• o       Common denominator – opening economies to foreign capital and trade

• o       World bank publication – more globalized did better in 1990s

• o       Have some stats on spread of democracy by countries, spread of free press

• o       Growing belief that capitalists are corrupt and cannot be held accountable

• ·        Pigs, pay and power

• o       At heart of capitalism’s problem is executive pay

• o       The US is OK with income inequality if it is earned – but in the 1990s it looked like they rigged the system – it was illegally gained

• o       Two trens egalitarian – spread shares to managers and flat hierarchy vs plutocratisation – spread it only to a top few – only the high tech companies fell into the former – John Snow is example of someone who worked the system – great retirement package

• ·        Beyond shareholder value

• o       Many reasons why shareholders let it happen – and some ideas on how to stop it – but it is a threat to capitalism

• ·        Pro-market, not pro business

• o       Governments too cozy with business – but suggests states still powerful –

• o       George Bush – jobs to 40 of 200biggest donators / Cheney gets energy policy from buddies / ag business subsidies

• o       Urge to cooperate for G with business is big – should be avoided for 5 reasons

• 1.      outcome is bent to elfish ends

• 2.      imperfect knowledge for intervention

• 3.      interventions never neutral

• 4.      interventions invite to corruption

• 5.      close ties detrimental to democracy and public trust

• ·        Give freedom a chance

• o       Need to help poor – get rid of ag supports and tariffs

Jonathan Rauch, “The mullahs and the postmodernists,” The Atlantic Monthly 1/2002

• Talks of a early writer who divides world into Aaron Wildavsky – individualistic cultures – no central authority/ hierarchical societies  everyone has his place / egalitarian – all have the same
• The left is egalitarian and is joining forces with hierarchical Islamic fundamentalists

Tim Robbins, "A chill wind blowing in the nation," Speech to National Press Club April 15, 2003

Arundhati Roy, "Mesopotamia, Babylon, The Tigris and Euphrates," The Guardian April 1, 2003

Jonathan Schell, "The unfinished 20th century," Harpers January 2000

Jonathan Schell, "No more into the breach," Harpers April 2003

Schwartz and Layne, “A New Grand Strategy?”  The Atlantic Monthly 1/2002

• ·        need to abandon unipolar position and adopt a multipolar view

• ·        US was locked in bi-polar view with Cold War – we have

• ·        Wolfitz memo from 1992 – US should continue to dominate – we must provide “adult supervision”

• ·        Brzenski – in his 1997 book – argues a united korea not in best interest of US strategy – lead to US pull-out – and to japan’s military build-up

• ·        Persian Gulf – not so important to US –  keeps involved so others more dependent upon oil do not take control

• ·        Problem with hegemonic powers – people hate them

• ·        Can a country be a benevolent hegemon? – briton thought they were

• ·        Hyperpower > superpower

• ·        “partners form alliances not because they are friends, but because they have common enemies

• ·        US cannot prevent rise of superpowers

• ·        US and England – protected by moats so they grew – had others do ighting – US delayed invasion until 1944-Russia takes it on the chin

• ·        Kennedy – we will defeat communism, nixon we will coexist – détente = permamnet relationship with countries with national interests

• ·        Offshore balancing position for US –  recognize

• Russia is key to three regions – Europe, East Asia, Persian gulf

• China – let them figure out the taiwan issue

• Europe – endorse EU

• ·        Since WWII US grand strategy has been to maintain economic, political, an military preponderance – we could afford it til 9/11.  maybe they are doing to us what Ronald Regan is accused of doing to Soviet Union

• ·        We can achieve our goal of security without going it alone

• ·        Kennan and others believed we needed Europe and Japan dependent on us – we provided security for them

• ·        Pentagon’s Defense Planning Guidance leaked to NYT in 1992 described dominance – we provide “adult supervision.”

• ·        It seems a means to absolute security – but it is not

• ·        Some believe we have soft power that means world likes the hegemon – protects us against backlash – not so

Wallace Shawn, "Fragments from a diary," The Nation 3/31/2003

Wallace Shawn, "The foreign policy therapist," The Nation 12/3/2001

P. J. Simmons, Global Challenges: Beating the Odds, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

“Stumbling into Battle,” Harpers 1/02

• ·        Declaring war creates war psychosis – conjures up images of military successes and battles and an identifiable opponent / military is no longer last resort /

• ·        The secrets of a success against terrorism lost when declare it a war

• ·        War of terrorism is war for hearts and minds – like war on drugs and crime

• ·        In Palestine the terrorists incite army to inflict heavy force – the terrorists win the hearts of people

• ·        We should have not been surprised – the western view of world that we jam down throats of everyone does not sell well everywhere –

• ·        There is conflict between theistic, land-based, and traditional cultures

"The case for war revisited," The Economist 7/19/2003

“The course of Empire,” Harpers 12/02

• US belief in utility of force, rejection of legitimacy of non democratic governments, and search for absolute security  looks like what happened in France
• Bush interest in unilateralism (Kyoto, International Criminal Court, ABM Treaty)
• Bush interest in preemptive – new
• Unrestrained power presents threat to liberty and freedom – talks about political philosophers and views on power and empire – it is not pretty – and it would not last
• Reversal of post wwii order of creating international institutions – now we think we can go it alone
• Question of legitimacy – important in financial markets too – can disappear quickly –
• Choice hegemonic dictatorship or consensual leadership, internationalism or imperialism

The National Security Strategy of theUnited States of America, September 2002 

“The New Censorship,” Harpers 8/03

• ·        Americans not questioning = poverty of imagination

• ·        Reagan Noriega = Hitler, Bush Saddam = Satin, axis of evil,  war against terror

• ·        Right view - We are United Crisis States or United Security States of America – we are under attack

• ·        Left view - We create problem because of our policies Ex. = trade policies

• ·        Middle view (Chalmers Johnson) – US = imperialist but because peace loving people duped by its leaders, economic elite, rogue military – author disagrees – Americans have to know

• ·        Problem is we know the problems – they are exposed – and we accept them

“The shadow men,” Economist 4/26/03

• ·        Who are the neo cons? – grew from Democratic Party in 1960s- called liberal mugged by reality – 1^st generation were concerned with social policy and defense / 2^nd generation  are Republicans, read Weekly Standard, join think tanks like American Enterprise Institute

• ·        Neo cons not like CEOs or Texans – 9/11 was the chance to be heard – to create order in chaos –

• ·        Iraq is neo cons test case – when do they get the grade?   They ant to spread democracy and worry about the Middle East

"The spider in his web," The Economist 9/22/2001

"Unfinished battle," The Economist 4/10/1999

US Commission on National Security, Road map for national Security: Key Observations and Overarching Processes.” 2000

• Future security environment

1. We are vulnerable to attacks
2. new technologies will create new vulnerabilities
3. new technologies will divide world as well as make it smaller
4. global economic infrastructure more important to national security
5. energy remains important
6. borders will be more porous
7. sovereignty will come under pressure – fragmentation of states will occur
8. there will be atrocities and civilian terrorism
9. space will become important
10. essence of war will not change
11. intelligence will have BIG problems – cannot be foolproof
12. US will neeed to intervene frequently
13. US will require other nations

• Objectives and policies

1. defend US
2. maintain America’s social cohesion, economic competitiveness, technological ingenuity, and military strength (is more important now than in Cold War – political and economic components of national security take even billing with military
3. assist the integration of key major powers, especially Russia and china and India into the international system
4. promote dynamism of global economy and improve effectiveness of international institutions
5. accept that US partners want greater autonomy and responsibility
6. tame the disintegrative forces spawned by era of change

"US Military logistics," The Atlantic Monthly May 2003

Wirth, Gray, and Podesta, “The Future of Energy Policy.” Foreign Affairs J/A 2003

• Advent of globalization, growing gap between rich and poor, war on terrorism, and environment are all intertwined with energy.  US energy policies have failed to account for 3 things: 1. political and economic security threatened by dependence on oil. 2. global environmental change. 3. poverty and lack of access to energy for many
• Of oil reserves 4% in US and 66% in Middle East – every US recession of last 40 years was preceded by oil price increase
• Oil $ fund problem regimes in Middle East
• Environmental impacts of increased carbon in atmosphere = rising temps and sea levels, altered precipitation patters, increased storm intensity, destruction of ecosystem – may happen quickly
• Suggests three long-term goals to energy policy 1. cut US oil consumption by 1/3 Q how do we do it?  2. cut carbon emissions by 1/3. 3. develop and distribute environmental helping technology
• Need to develop 5 new initiatives 1. more advanced vehicles, better fuels to run them, carbon sequestration from coal, modernized electric grids, new toold or financing development projects
• Average cow in Europe receives $2.5 a day in government subsidies, the cow in japan gets $7.5, while 75% of Africa lives on less than $2

Why and when to go in, The Economist 1/6/2001

• Tradition to let countries rule their people – ignored during colonization
• When do we go in? if minority being denied rights, if ruler denies rights to all its people Milosevic

Martin Wolf, “Will the nation State Survive Globalization?  Foreign Affairs, J/F 2001

• Two threats – markets are too powerful for govt to shield people and markets are good enough to protect people from corrupt governments

Thomas de Zengotita, “The romance of empire and the politics of self-love,” Harpers 7/03

• When did the American Empire begin – look at the reign of Bush the Bold
• Compares Bush and 9/11 to revenge movie –
• Bush keeps it simple – Bush is still a boy looking for acceptance – found it in TX – and Texans exploit him – he is spoiled bully – there is an aura of puppetry around Bush –
• Bush’s hold on country is anti intellectual – derived from devotion to all that is practical – difference between being smart and being educated
• They look at themselves as the next greatest generation

War and economy

Richard Stevenson, “The prospect of a war without a wartime boom” NYT 9/23/2001

• We may have a terrorist tax on growth –

What does economic history teach us about natural disasters and war? The Economist 9/22/2001

• Kobe earthquake 1995 and CA eathquake 1994 – both bounced back
• After Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, confidence fell – pushd economy into recession

Felix Rohatyn, Rebuilding can revive the economy, WSJ 11/25/2001

• Eisenhower used Interstate Highways System – for national security reasons – as way to build out of recession in 1956

The Gulf War and the US economy FRBSF 9/13/1991

• Expansionary effects (G, oil imports reduced as taken out of inventory, increased oil company profits) contractionary effect weaker growth abroad, consumer confidence, business confidence) net effect would have been negative

Richard Bernier “The Terror Economy” NYT 10/23/2001

• Everyday security will be a fixed expense – inc security claim more of national savings
• Peace dividend helped – look at Clinton defense budget

US economy after Sept 11” FRBSF 12/7/2001

• Remarks of pres of SF bank
• US economy before 9/11 midst of slowdown – downturn in IT – excesses of markets – consumers hanging in there
• After 9/11 – Fed cut rates – fiscal stimulus

Impact of 911

Wendell Berry

• will it mark end to technological and economic optimism? – is this end of the New Economy hype?
• Will it mark end of move toward openness?
• Optimism = we live in new world order
• Pessimism – inequality
• Developed nations sacrificed farmers and factory workers to market – universal pollution and global warming = cost of business
• Economic & technological euphoria – solve all problems – key = innovation
• To continue with globalization we will need large police force = loss of freedoms
• We can not go for globalization and unilateralism
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• We did not forsee 9/11

Bill Powell, “Battered but Unbroken” Fortune 10/1/2001 

1.      capitalism’s symbol, but not capitalism brought down

2. Berlin Wall collapse – 11/9/89 to 9/11/01 “era  =of American frivolity and self absorption…” – we lost fear of row – what will happen – depends on mood, psychology – like a natural disaster or Guld War?  - new industry possibilities – voice communications replace travel – after gulf war consumers cut back spending -  what about value of $ with trade deficits

1. “The spider in the web”
• Bin Laden uses modern corporate structures – alliances
• He gained staturein war against Soviets in Afghanistan
•  
2. Talwani, “Will Calgary be the next Kuwait?”
• Shale oil
3. “US military logistics”
•  
4. “The fall of the house of Saud”
•  
5. Tim Robbins speech
• Raises real questions about the squashing of dissent – control of media