The 2002 season seems to be going all according to plan. The hitting has been timely and plentiful, the pitching has been consistent, not being horrible since the opening day game, and at times being brilliant, such as Lowe’s no hitter. But there are a lot of questions. What if Sanchez doesn’t hit? What if Manny is out longer then expected? What if Lowe comes back down to earth? What if Pedro, or Nomar reaggravates their respective injuries? If everyone holds to their pace, and Nixon reverts back to normal form, then winning the American League isn’t out of the question. Conversely, if nothing holds, then they could be fighting off Baltimore and Toronto in AL East futility. What the analysis does show is that they are in better shape right now then they were at the end of the 2001 baseball season. That, in itself, will make most Red Sox fans happy.
Component ERA (CERA) = (D*9)/IP
If CERA≥2.24 than CERA-.56
If CERA<2.24 than CERA*.75
D = (A*B)/C
A = H+BB+HBP
B = (((H-HR)*1.255)+4*HR)*.89)+((BB-IBB)*.56)+(HBP*.56)
C = BFP (Batters facing Pitcher)
On Base
Percentage (OB%) = (BB+HBP+H)/(AB+HBP+BB+S)
On Base plus
Slugging (OPS) = OB% + Slug%
Runs Created (RC) = (((C*2.4)+A)*((C*3.0)+B) /(C*9.0))-(C*0.9)
A = (H+BB+HBP)-(GIDP+CS)
B = (((H-IBB)+HBP)*.24)+(SB*.62)+((S+SF)*.5)-(K*.03))+(TB)
C = AB+BB+HBP+S+SF
Runs Created
(in relation to team) = PlayerRC*(TeamRuns/TeamRC)
Slugging
Percentage (Slug%) = TB/AB
Total Bases (TB) = H+2b+2*3b+3*HR