Players

            Perhaps the place where the Red Sox changed the most is the players themselves.  Using the base of the nine offensive positions (the field positions plus a DH), five starting pitchers, and a closer, objective statistical analysis looks at how much Boston has improved over the off season.  Note:  all stats are current through May 11^th, 2002.

Offense

            Last season, the Red Sox struggled to score runs despite being among the American league leaders in home runs and walks, and being in the top half of the league in batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and hits.  They ranked only seventh in the AL in runs scored, behind all of the leagues playoff teams, Seattle (1), Cleveland (2), Oakland (4), and NY Yankees (5).  Most of these struggles can be attributed to losing Nomar Garciaperra and Jason Varitek for most of the season, as well as significant injuries to centerfielder and all-star, Carl Everett.  This season, the Sox are off to a better start offensively, ranking third in the league in runs scored, and home runs, and leading the league in the percentages (batting average, on base, and slugging).  This begs the question, why is there a significant change?  Is it luck, or is it more personnel changes?  Below is a position-by-position breakdown, comparing the Boston Red Sox from 2001 and 2002.  The “regular” is defined as the player that played the most games at the position:

Catcher:

2001:  Scott Hatteberg

2002:  Jason Varitek

Catcher was on of the areas where the injury really hurt the Red Sox last year.  Jason Varitek was on pace to have his best career year, where as Scott Hatteberg was supposedly the lefty hitting DH, but lost that job to Manny Ramirez’s hamstrings.  That fact made Hatteberg an afterthought in the scheme of the Red Sox offense, just a backup to Varitek.  However, on June 7^th against the Detroit Tigers, Varitek broke his elbow diving for a pop up.  At the time of the injury, Varitek was hitting .293 with 7 HRs 25 RBIs, with a .859 OPS[1] (on base percentage plus slugging percentage), which was the highest mark among American League catchers.  Initially after the injury, Hatteberg put up solid numbers offensively, but by the time the season ended, those numbers eroded, and the drop off was more visible.  In fact, by September, Hatteberg lost so much confidence in Jimy Williams and Joe Kerrigan that Doug Mirabelli became the starting catcher.  In the off-season, Hatteberg was traded to Colorado, and then non-tendered, and became a free agent.  He then signed with the Oakland Athletics and currently serves as their DH against right handed pitching.  This year, Varitek isn’t quite as hot as last year, but he has created 14.6 runs[2] (in relation to the team), and is on pace to create 71.3.

Advantage:  2002 Varitek

First Base 

2001:  Brian Daubach

2002:  Brian Daubach

The 2002 version of Daubach is much like the 2001 version.  He is extremely streaky, disappearing at times, being one of the best hitter in baseball at others.  He hasn’t yet hit a cold patch this year.  Based on his career numbers and trends, there is really no reason to expect that he would have similar numbers to the last few seasons, which is hitting about .270 with 22 HR, 75 RBI and an OPS of .840 or so. 

Advantage:  Push

Second Base

2001:  Jose Offerman

2002:  Rey Sanchez

One of the biggest complaints of Red Sox fans of 2001 was how ineffective Jose Offerman was both at the bat and in the field.  There aren’t really any completely objective statistics for looking at fielding prowess, but Offerman does have a terrible reputation as compared to his predecessor, Rey Sanchez, who was regarded as an excellent fielding shortstop.  Much of the struggles of Offerman at the plate were unfounded, based more in his lack of stolen bases and low batting average, then of anything more analytical, such as his on base percentage respectable, albeit 8 year low, .342), and increased power from the year before (9 more doubles, same triples and home runs).  Ironically enough, the criticism have waned this year, with Offerman being seen as a nice cog in the Sox engine, since he’s batting .310 and not hurting the team in the field (his role is more of a 10^th player).  The irony of this is that according to the Runs Created formula, he’s on pace to contribute less to the offense of the team this year then last (61.9 pace this year vs. 68.8 actual last year).  That is not to say the team is better off having Jose Offerman as the regular second baseman, because much of the difference is in the more efficient Red Sox offence of 2002, and Rey Sanchez is on pace to record a career high in RC with 82.  It’s more of a defense of a player who is seen as being much worse then he actually is.

Advantage:  2002 Rey Sanchez

Shortstop:

2001: Mike Lansing

2002: Nomar Garciaperra

This is a no brainer, but there is an essay latter on to show the steps of analysis.

Advantage:  2002 Nomar Garciaperra

Third Base:

2001:  Shea Hillenbrand

2002:  Shea Hillenbrand

Shea Hillenbrand had the unique ability last year to frustrate both “old time baseball” people and “stat” people.  At times, he seemed to be swinging at things that we’re 3 feet outside the strike zone, never drawing a walk, having very low power, and having stone hands with an erratic arm at third.  Most of these attributes seemed to draw criticism based on his fast April start coupled with cold every other month.  This year it was a hotter April then last, but this time he seems to be taking more pitches, working the count, and because of that, he is getting on base more, and he’s driving the ball with more authority.  One of the interesting subplots of the 2002 season is whether or not Hillenbrand can keep it up all season, or if he’s going to return to being the worst regular third baseman in the American League.

Advantage:  2002 Shea Hillenbrand

Left field:

2001:  Manny Ramirez

2002:  Manny Ramirez

Manny is Manny.  If not for Frank Thomas in the early 90’s, and Edgar Martinez in the late 90’s, Ramirez would be the best right-handed hitter in the American League.  He faced a lot of criticism from the media and fans at the end of last season for disappearing for the last few months.  That will be discussed in the next section, as most of it probably isn’t Manny’s fault.  According to the numbers, the biggest free agent signing in Boston history ended up being worth the money.  Scary as it seems, he’s a more productive hitter now then last year at this time, despite less home runs and similar RBIs.  Currently leads the AL in batting average, and OPS, second in RBIs and walks.  The only downside is that he broke his index finger last night, and will be out a month or so.

Advantage:  2002 Manny Ramirez

Centerfield:

2001:  Carl Everett

2002:  Johnny Damon

There haven’t been many Red Sox more controversial then Carl Everett in my lifetime.  It seems like if anything happened to the Red Sox last year, Carl was involved.  The two schools of thought were that Carl was a product of his environment, from a tough neighborhood, with tough upbringing, resulting in an angry person who was provoked by an uncaring media (Boston Globe’s Dan Shaugnessy called him Jurassic Carl in many columns because Everett doesn’t believe in dinosaurs.  Everett responded by calling him Gordon Edes’ “Curly Haired Boyfriend”.)  The other school of thought was that Carl was just another whiney spoiled athlete, complaining and showboating his whole Boston career.  Eitherway, at best, he was a distraction, at worst, he was completely detrimental to the team.  This most visibly had an affect on Manny Ramirez.  The quiet Ramirez seemed to be completely taken aback by the media zoo that Everett’s presence brought, and one could assume that it adversely affected Manny’s play on the field.  Statistically, Everett was much less effective in 2001 then he was in 2002, to the point that when he was traded, it was really addition by subtraction.  His leaving also opened the door to sign a cheaper, younger Johnny Damon, who at this moment, has created just about half as many runs as Everett did all last year.  With Damon leading off, the Sox have scored runs in bunches at times, and he has created some havoc on the basepathes.  Although “chemistry” is usually found when teams are winning, Damon seems to have done his part to make sure the chemistry is better.

Advantage: 2002 Johnny Damon (but 2000 Carl Everett)

Right Field:

2001:  Trot Nixon

2002:  Trot Nixon    

Probably the most glaring sign of how injuries really affected the 2001 version of the Red Sox is how Nixon was voted the Red Sox MVP for the season, on a team that had Pedro Martinez, Nomar Garciaperra, and Manny Ramirez.  That’s not to say Nixon had a bad year, he actually had the best year of his career. He probably the most valuable player, but without injuries, Nixon would probably be an afterthought in such discussions.  He is also a notorious slow starter, having horrible Aprils, decent Mays, and tearing up the ball the other four months of the year.  However, Nixon is being dropped to the bottom part of the order, batting higher then 6^th only once, after spending a year almost exclusively in the top third of the order.  The biggest effect on Nixon’s stats will be the decrease in RBI opportunities, and that makes his value go down a little bit. 

Advantage:  2001 Trot Nixon (could be different in September)

Designated Hitter:

2001:  Dante Bichette

2002:  Tony Clark

Essentially a wash, since Clark is the same, as Daubach only he gets hotter and colder.  Bichette was 39, on the downside of a Coors inflated career.  Both have been incredible fun to watch at some times, the rest, totally unwatchable.  This position is a push, but again, Clark hasn’t been as hot as he was during the spring yet.

Advantage:  Push

Nomar vs. Lansing:

This is such a mismatch; it was necessary to write a separate section on just these two men.  Mike Lansing filled in the best he could, I’m sure, but he was not the presence in the lineup that Nomar was.  Over the last 5 years, Nomar has been probably the second best shortstop in the majors, behind Alex Rodriguez.  Mike Lansing is one of 75 people who can play shortstop at the major league level.  The question is then, how do you look at the two hitters objectively, when the gap between the two is so obvious?  I made a table putting both hitters basic stats in, Lansing for 2001, and Nomar for 2000, which was his last full year.  From there, I compared them, and saw how big the gap really was.  Then I figured out how much they each contributed to their team’s offense (Bill James’ Runs Created).  Again, there is no contest, as Nomar’s for 2000 was 117.4, to Lansing’s 40.2.  The production of the two men for the time periods is, again, not in the same ballpark, as Lansing only came close to matching Nomar’s output in one month, that being July.

In this instance, production is being defined as on base plus slugging percentage.  As it shows, Nomar is putting months of 1.272, and 1.222.  The best Lansing could muster was .968 and .745.  In fact, Lansing only had one month (July) that was as good as Nomar’s worst month (May).  I guess the point of all this is that sometimes analysis can only go so far to prove or disprove things, especially when one of the players is a thoroughbred, and the other is a toy pony.

Pitching

Pitching is a different animal then hitting, for the sheer fact that pure skill can only take someone so far, where as if you are a good hitter, you will put up good numbers.  If you are a good pitcher, you could still end up 10-18, not because someone “doesn’t know how to win” but because there are so many pitching variables.  To simplify the rotations and closer, I have put a table together that has each pitcher’s Winning Percentage, ERA and Component ERA.  Component ERA[3] is essentially the Runs Created per 9 innings.  These taken together can show if a pitcher has luck on the defensive side of the ball.  If the ERA is 3.50 and the CERA is 3.45, then the pitcher is probably as good as is noted.  If the CERA is much higher, then he probably has some luck, and vice versa if the CERA is lower.  Winning Percentage is used, when compared to ERA, shows if a pitcher has luck on the offensive side of the ball.  If a pitcher has an ERA of 2.52, and only gets 1.50 runs of support, then the reason he is 10-15 isn’t that he pitched poorly, or “doesn’t know how to win” its that his teams offense isn’t doing the job.  All that being said, here are the tables with those numbers for the five rotation spots and the closer:

Truth be told, there isn’t much to make of these numbers.  I doubt that Lowe was truly as bad as he seemed in 2001, much like I doubt he is as good as he seems this year.  John Burkett has only pitched four games this year, is that to say he is really that much better then Hideo Nomo last year?  Is Ugueth Urbina as shaky as Heathcliff Slocomb, or is he just being wild early in the year.  The sample sizes are too small to really use these numbers with any amount of confidence, so I’m going to say simply it appears the pitching staffs are a wash.  Lowe makes up for Pedro and Castillo losing some effectiveness, but I would say that Nomo, Cone, and Wakefield weren’t terribly effective anyway, so what the numbers show now is that the Red Sox have a old, somewhat valuable pitching staff, and it was replaced by another old, somewhat valuable pitching staff.  They lead the AL in ERA, but they finished fourth last year, and led when Martinez went down.  The wild card is if Dustin Hermanson recovers from his groin pull and pitches like he showed in Montreal.  Replacing Oliver with Hermanson is akin to replacing David Cone with Derek Lowe. 

Advantage:  Push (unless Hermanson comes back strong)