WHAT: Following a brief reprieve in February, the state’s economic momentum took a dramatic turn for the worse in March, says University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro. The Current Conditions Index fell back into the contraction range to a value of 42, from 58 in February. Four of five leading indicators – New Claims (for unemployment insurance), Single-Unit Permits, Total Manufacturing Hours and Employment Service Jobs – all failed to improve. Retail Sales also fell by 1.9% in March – its second decline in the last three months. While Manufacturing Wage, Private Service-Producing Employment and Benefits Exhaustions showed improvement, Lardaro cautions those improving indicators do not display much strength. Given the declines and weak performances, Lardaro states he is convinced Rhode Island’s economy is continuing to move toward a recession.

WHO: URI Professor of Economics Leonard Lardaro, creator and author of the Current Conditions Index.

WHEN: May 9, 2023

HOW: Use attached information, including summary and charts prepared by Lardaro for news reports. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor data during the coming weeks. Additional information and historical data available online: http://www.llardaro.com/current.htm.

FOR INFORMATION: Leonard Lardaro, office, 401-874-4128, home, 401-783-9563.

Dawn Bergantino, URI Department of Communications and Marketing, 401-874-4147.

BACKGROUND: The Current Conditions Index, created by Lardaro, measures the strength of the present economic climate in Rhode Island by following the behavior of 12 indicators.