WHAT: Rhode Island now finds itself in a “statistical recession,” says University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro following the release of updated labor market data and several of his key economic indicators appearing to be in a downward trend. The Current Conditions Index remained at a value of 33 in May, landing it in contraction territory, where it has been all but one month in 2023. Among the 12 CCI indicators, only U.S. Consumer Sentiment, Manufacturing Wage, Government Employment, and Retail Sales showed improvement. New Claims (for Unemployment Insurance) showed no improvement. Lardaro notes that monetary and fiscal stimulus nationally has helped to produce budget surpluses, capital gains by individuals, and savings accumulated during the pandemic lockdown, leaving individuals and companies overall in a much stronger position than would normally be the case at this point – making this a recession unlike those the state has faced in the past. He adds that segments of Rhode Island’s economy, those impacted by the higher end of the income spectrum, continue to do quite well, while the same is becoming increasingly less true for average to below-average income Rhode Islanders. While it is quite possible the state may bounce back and forth into and out of this economic state, possibly dodging a typical recession, he states he sees relatively few areas of strength in the aggregate data.

WHO: URI Professor of Economics Leonard Lardaro, creator and author of the Current Conditions Index.

WHEN: July 18, 2023

HOW: Use attached information, including summary and charts prepared by Lardaro for news reports. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor data during the coming weeks. Additional information and historical data available online: http://www.llardaro.com/current.htm.

FOR INFORMATION: Leonard Lardaro, office, 401-874-4128, home, 401-783-9563.

Dawn Bergantino, URI Department of Communications and Marketing, 401-874-4147.

BACKGROUND: The Current Conditions Index, created by Lardaro, measures the strength of the present economic climate in Rhode Island by following the behavior of 12 indicators.