Jan. 7, 2026
WHAT: Rhode Island’s economic performance for October was not pretty and multiple economic indicators had declined from the previous month, according to University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro. October’s Current Conditions Index value, at 33, matched the marks set in August, June and February.
It is also the sixth time in 10 months that the CCI was less than 50, with Lardaro not changing his overall assessment that Rhode Island is in a recession. The state, for now, continues to struggle breaking through the recent “ceiling” of the neutral 50 CCI value, Lardaro says, and the fate of the state’s economic status rests largely in the hands of monetary and fiscal policy—two things that the general community has no control over.
For October, just four of the 12 economic indicators improved relative to a year ago. However, only two of the five leading economic indicators improved. Most concerning, Retail Sales, a critical economic indicator that has been a strength through almost the entire post-pandemic period, fell in October by 0.6%. Lardaro says this key indicator dropping is likely reflecting ongoing weakness within the labor market.
Total Manufacturing Hours grew at 4.9%, which Lardaro considers very healthy after the 5% growth that September saw. Manufacturing Wage also “barely” increased by 0.4, he says.
New Claims, which is related to layoffs, increased by 4.1% and sustained its upward trend. Benefits Exhaustion, which indicates long-term unemployment, rose in September by 12.8%, its third consecutive “failure to improve,” Lardaro says. And, Single-Unit Permits, related to new home construction, dropped in October by an estimated 22%.
Employment Service Jobs, a leading labor market indicator, fell by 1% after improving the previous month. US Consumer Sentiment again declined by a double-digit rate, down by 23.7%—continuing its consistent monthly declines—Lardaro says.
Government Employment also fell by 1.5%, attributed to declines in federal government employment, Lardaro says, while Private Service-Producing Employment, a proxy for service-sector employment, barely rose (0.1%) in October.
HOW: Use attached information, including summary and charts prepared by Lardaro for news reports. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor data during the coming weeks.
WHEN: Jan. 7, 2026
FOR INFORMATION: Leonard Lardaro, office, 401-874-4128, home, 401-783-9563; James Bessette, URI Department of Communications and Marketing, 401-874-3520, james.bessette@uri.edu.
BACKGROUND: The Current Conditions Index, created by Lardaro, measures the strength of the present economic climate in Rhode Island by following the behavior of 12 indicators.