WHAT: Rhode Island’s economic performance through March has gone virtually unchanged since August 2025 and the state is still in a recession, according to University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro. March’s Current Conditions Index value, at 42, remains where it has been for seven of the last eight months. It is also the twelfth time in the last 15 months that the CCI has fallen below 50.
March’s value follows a significant dip in February, which saw the CCI drop from 42 in January to 17. He has no explanation as to why the “bizarre” data repeated as it had in March 2025—which noted a similar significant drop to a CCI index of 25—and considers February’s CCI value of 17 as largely “noise.”
Lardaro says that despite some momentum, the positives are still outweighing the negatives, leading to a continuation of contraction CCI values. Only five of the CCI’s 12 economic indicators showed improvement over last year. Plus, resident employment, which is the number of employed Rhode Island residents either in-state or out of state, dropped by 8,200 year over year, a number Lardaro calls “shocking.”
Lardaro says Retail Sales, a critical economic indicator that has been a strength through almost the entire post-pandemic period, improved by 4.5%. Total Manufacturing Hour’s positive momentum continued, growing by 6.9%. Manufacturing Wage went up by 0.1%.
Single-Use Permits, related to new-home construction, rose by 8.3% in March, Lardaro says.
However, the state’s Labor Force dropped by 1.3%, remaining on a downward trend as it has since May 2025. Employment Service Jobs, a leading labor market indicator, fell by 2.6%, continuing a drop seen for more than a year. U.S. Consumer Sentiment was down in March by 6.6%, Lardaro says.
Private Service-Producing Employment, a proxy for service-sector employment, declined by 0.2%. Benefits Exhaustion, which indicates long-term unemployment, dropped in March by 3.5%, another improvement, Lardaro says.
But, New Claims, which is related to layoffs, increased by 1.2% in March. Government Employment also decreased by 1.5%, failing to improve for 10 straight months, Lardaro says.
HOW: Use attached information, including summary and charts prepared by Lardaro for news reports. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor data during the coming weeks.
WHEN: May 11, 2026
FOR INFORMATION: Leonard Lardaro, office, 401-874-4128, home, 401-783-9563; James Bessette, URI Department of Communications and Marketing, 401-874-3520, james.bessette@uri.edu.
BACKGROUND: The Current Conditions Index, created by Lardaro, measures the strength of the present economic climate in Rhode Island by following the behavior of 12 indicators.