June 1, 2026
WHAT: Given Rhode Island’s economic performance for April saw a number of positives and improvements from earlier months, according to University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro, the question now shifts to whether the state is still in a recession or if it’s in the earliest stages of recovery. April’s Current Conditions Index value, at 42, remains where it has been for eight of the last nine months.
While five of the CCI’s 12 economic indicators improved in April relative to a year ago, it is also the 11th time in the last 12 months that the CCI was less than 50. However, Lardaro says things look better than they appear.
He says Rhode Island’s household data, which appears to be dropping dramatically, is likely inaccurate. Although Rhode Island’s labor data for 2024 showed growth rates much higher than the United States overall, Lardaro says the official data from the last two months show otherwise.
As such, Lardaro interprets this as Rhode Island’s household survey data being in the process of rightsizing, moving its numbers back to where they would have been absent abnormal 2023 growth rates. It is possible, and hopefully true, that Rhode Island might actually be in the earliest stages of an economic recovery, but only time will tell, Lardaro says.
Retail Sales, a critical economic indicator that has been a strength through almost the entire post-pandemic period, grew in April by 3.6%. Total Manufacturing Hours rose by 6.1%, sustaining its growth.
Single-Unit Permits, related to new home construction, increased by 7.9% in April, showing continued strong performance, Lardaro says. New Claims, which is related to layoffs, dropped by 7.6%. Benefits Exhaustion, which indicates long-term unemployment, decreased in April by 4.7%.
Employment Service Jobs, a leading labor market indicator, fell by 0.1%. US Consumer Sentiment continued its consistent monthly declines, dropping by 4.3% in April, Lardaro says.
Government Employment also fell by 1.8%, attributed to declines in federal government employment, Lardaro says, while Private Service-Producing Employment, a proxy for service-sector employment, dropped in April by 0.6%.
HOW: Use attached information, including summary and charts prepared by Lardaro for news reports. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor data during the coming weeks.
WHEN: June 1, 2026
FOR INFORMATION: Leonard Lardaro, office, 401-874-4128, home, 401-783-9563; James Bessette, URI Department of Communications and Marketing, 401-874-3520, james.bessette@uri.edu.
BACKGROUND: The Current Conditions Index, created by Lardaro, measures the strength of the present economic climate in Rhode Island by following the behavior of 12 indicators.