June 16, 2025

WHAT: Following a horrid March showing, the state’s economic data for April showed a clear improvement, registering a strong value of 50 in the Current Conditions Index. However, cause for concern about Rhode Island’s economy remains, said University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro. The CCI has remained in a neutral or contraction value every month since December, and the 2025 CCI values have lagged their corresponding values from the previous year. While only one of the CCI’s five leading economic indicators improved in April, there were positive notes and it appears March’s horrendous data may have been a fluke. Despite this, April’s data may suggest that the state is on the precipice of or in the early stages of a recession.

For April, Retail Sales, a critical economic indicator that has been strong through most of the post-pandemic period, was among the positives – rising sharply by 7.3%. The increase may have been caused by “front loading” as the tariff war started, but Lardaro adds the April value would have improved despite the tariff situation. Employment Service Jobs, a leading labor market indicator, also rose significantly in April (up 6.4%), ending a long string of declines. The rest of the CCI indicators turned in mixed to weak performances.

HOW: Use attached information, including summary and charts prepared by Lardaro for news reports. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor data during the coming weeks. Additional information and historical data available online: http://www.llardaro.com/current.htm.

WHEN: June 16, 2025

FOR INFORMATION: Leonard Lardaro, office, 401-874-4128, home, 401-783-9563. Tony LaRoche, URI Department of Communications and Marketing, 401-874-4894.

BACKGROUND: The Current Conditions Index, created by Lardaro, measures the strength of the present economic climate in Rhode Island by following the behavior of 12 indicators.