July 16, 2026

WHAT: Rhode Island’s economic performance for May has offered some evidence supporting the possibility that the state’s recession is beginning to end, according to University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro. May’s Current Conditions Index value, at 50, improved over April’s 42. 

It was also the second time in the last three months that a monthly CCI showed 50, which is a neutral value—above 50 is expansion and below is contraction.

Five of the CCI’s 12 economic indicators improved in May relative to a year ago, and it was only the fifth time in the last 17 months that the CCI was at 50 or better. March’s CCI, originally at 42, was revised to 50 based on new data. However, despite May’s data containing a number of disappointments, Lardaro says there is some basis for optimism that Rhode Island’s economy is getting out of its recession. 

Retail Sales, a critical economic indicator that has been a strength through almost the entire post-pandemic period, grew by 6.4% in May. Total Manufacturing Hours rose by a “healthy” 6.7%, Lardaro says, sustaining its growth. Manufacturing Wage also grew by 1.1%—the second time in the last six months it has occurred.

New Claims, which is related to layoffs, dropped by a double-digit rate of 26.4%, its fifth improvement in the last seven months, Lardaro says. Benefits Exhaustion, which indicates long-term unemployment, decreased by 9.1%—improving for the fourth time in the last five months. 

Employment Service Jobs, a leading labor market indicator, fell by 1.4%, continuing its downward trend. U.S. Consumer Sentiment continued its consistent monthly declines, dropping by 13.6%, Lardaro says. Single-Unit Permits, related to new home construction, fell back after a two-month climb, dropping by 10.5% in May.

Government Employment also fell by 1.2%, attributed to declines in federal government employment, Lardaro says, while Private Service-Producing Employment, a proxy for service-sector employment, dropped in April by 0.6%.

HOW: Use attached information, including summary and charts prepared by Lardaro for news reports. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor data during the coming weeks. 

WHEN: July 16, 2026

FOR INFORMATION: Leonard Lardaro, office, 401-874-4128, home, 401-783-9563; James Bessette, URI Department of Communications and Marketing, 401-874-3520, james.bessette@uri.edu.

BACKGROUND: The Current Conditions Index, created by Lardaro, measures the strength of the present economic climate in Rhode Island by following the behavior of 12 indicators.